Howard Marks says AI is going to have a ‘terrifying’ impact on employment — and it goes well past lost paychecks
In a recent blog post, billionaire investor Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, expressed profound concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the workforce, labeling the potential consequences as “terrifying.” Marks emphasized that the rise of AI threatens not only jobs and income but also the fundamental purpose and structure that work provides to individuals. He articulated that while discussions around universal basic income (UBI) are gaining traction among tech leaders like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, such measures fail to address the deeper emotional and psychological needs that employment fulfills. Marks poignantly noted that a job offers individuals a reason to rise each morning, a sense of structure in their daily lives, and a role in society that fosters self-respect.
The implications of AI on employment are staggering, with varying estimates suggesting that up to 60% of jobs in advanced economies could be affected. A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute highlights that more than half of U.S. work hours could be automated, raising urgent questions about the future of work and identity. Marks is not alone in his concerns; experts like Kate O’Neill warn that as we increasingly delegate decision-making to AI, we risk losing our ability to derive meaning from our experiences. Others, like author James Barrat, suggest that while UBI might provide financial support, it may lead to a period of disillusionment and a search for purpose in community service and volunteering after many have lost their jobs.
As the workforce landscape evolves due to AI, experts are advising the next generation to cultivate skills that machines cannot easily replicate. Geoffrey Hinton, a pioneer in AI research, has cautioned that roles involving “mundane intellectual labor” are most at risk. In contrast, he suggests that practical skills, such as plumbing, may remain in demand. OpenAI’s chief economist, Ronnie Chatterji, emphasizes the importance of critical thinking, emotional intelligence, and adaptability for young people navigating this shifting job market. Musk also encourages a broad educational approach, urging students to learn across diverse subjects while acknowledging the social benefits of a college environment. As AI continues to reshape the workforce, the challenge will be finding ways to maintain purpose and meaning in a rapidly changing world.
Howard Marks of Oaktree
South China Morning Post / Getty Images
Howard Marks warned that AI threatens purpose and structure, not just workers’ paychecks.
He said UBI can’t replace the self-worth and identity people get from work.
He called AI’s employment outlook “terrifying” as jobs and meaning erode.
“Terrifying.”
That’s one of the words legendary investor Howard Marks used to describe the impacts of AI on the workforce.
“I find the resulting outlook for employment terrifying. I am enormously concerned about what will happen to the people whose jobs AI renders unnecessary, or who can’t find jobs because of it,” Marks wrote in his latest blog post on Tuesday.
The billionaire and
cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management
has been writing memos for 35 years; in one recent post, he experimented with using AI to assist him in writing.
Tech leaders such as Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have called for versions of a
universal basic income
— a guaranteed income paid regularly to all adults
if jobs become obsolete —
as a solution to AI-related job and pay loss.
But Mark said that even if governments find a way to fund universal basic incomes, it doesn’t account for a key issue: That people get a lot more from jobs than just a paycheck.
“A job gives them a reason to get up in the morning, imparts structure to their day, gives them a productive role in society and self-respect,” he said.
“How will these things be replaced? I worry about large numbers of people receiving subsistence checks and sitting around idle all day,” he added.
The estimates on how many jobs will be affected by AI vary. An
IMF analysis from 2024
suggested that around 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected by AI, with half benefiting from the technology and the other being negatively impacted by it.
A McKinsey Global Institute report released last month found that technologies could automate more than half of US work hours.
But Marks isn’t alone in worrying about what happens to meaning when work vanishes.
Kate O’Neill, a tech advisor who helps companies navigate AI ethics and digital transformation, said in a recent TED Talk that as we hand more decisions and language over to AI, we risk surrendering a fundamentally human capacity — creating meaning from lived experience — not just losing tasks to machines.
James Barrat, author of “The Intelligence Explosion: When AI Beats Humans at Everything,” told Business Insider he believes people can find new purpose in a universal basic income world through volunteering and community service work — but only after a long, painful transition in which many lose jobs before rebuilding meaning somewhere else.
What careers should the next generation prepare for?
If AI is set to reshape work as profoundly as some people expect, tech leaders say young people will need to develop skill sets machines can’t easily mimic.
Geoffrey Hinton
, the so-called godfather of AI, has said that “mundane intellectual labor” roles are most at risk because of AI.
“I’d say it’s going to be a long time before it’s as good at physical manipulation,” Hinton said of AI earlier this year. “So a good bet would be to be a plumber.”
OpenAI’s chief economist
, Ronnie Chatterji, said he is teaching his kids the importance of critical thinking, emotional intelligence, and flexibility — preparing them for a world in which job titles shift faster than curricula can keep pace.
Elon Musk
recently said that while some of his older children recognize how quickly their skills could be overtaken by AI, he still supports them going to college.
“If you want to go to college for social reasons, I think that’s a reason to go — to be around people your own age in a learning environment,” he said.
“If you do, just try to learn as much as possible across a wide range of subjects,” he added.
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