Europe is holding the line against Trump’s and Putin’s plans for Ukraine. But it won’t be able to for ever | Martin Kettle
In a recent article by Martin Kettle for The Guardian, the ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict are examined through the lens of failed peace talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff. These discussions, which took place this week, exemplify a troubling trend of diplomatic stalemates that have characterized Trump’s second term, particularly regarding Ukraine. The article highlights the persistent imbalance of power in 21st-century geopolitics, noting that both Europe and NATO lack the military resources and economic leverage necessary to compel either Russia or the United States to take a serious approach to peace negotiations. As the conflict on the ground escalates, the likelihood of reaching a meaningful settlement diminishes, with the expectation that future talks will continue to occur without substantive progress.
Kettle points out that the dynamics driving these peace efforts remain unchanged: U.S. and Russian interests are firmly entrenched, and the stakes are high. Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, there has been a consistent approach to the Ukraine crisis, which Trump previously claimed he could resolve swiftly. However, the reality has proven far more complex, with the latest talks ending in an impasse that suggests a continuation of the status quo rather than a breakthrough. This ongoing deadlock raises concerns about the international community’s ability to influence the situation effectively. Kettle posits that the lack of progress in negotiations may inadvertently motivate both Trump and Putin to pursue alternative strategies, likely resulting in a U.S.-backed agreement that favors Russian interests in the long run.
As the situation evolves, Kettle underscores the need for a reevaluation of diplomatic strategies by European nations and NATO, urging them to find a more effective approach to engage with both Russia and the U.S. The article serves as a poignant reminder of the complexities involved in international diplomacy, particularly in a conflict as multifaceted as that in Ukraine. The lack of tangible results from the latest talks signals a troubling trend that could lead to further entrenchment of positions rather than progress towards peace, leaving the future of Ukraine hanging in the balance.
In the 21st-century imbalance of power, Europe and Nato have neither the arms nor the wealth to impel Russia or the US to take its peace settlement seriously
The failure of
this week’s peace talks
between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff fits into a now well-established pattern of standoffs on Ukraine during Trump’s second term. But the dynamic that produced these talks may be becoming more entrenched. The US and
Russian interests
driving the process have not changed, while the conflict on the ground is intensifying. The lack of progress this week means there will be another attempt to end the war soon, and perhaps another after that, until, one day, there is some kind of US-backed deal to halt the conflict on
terms broadly favouring Russia
.
The geopolitical algorithm driving this effort is too consistent to ignore. It has been repeated ever since Trump re-entered the White House in January. On the campaign trail, Trump had claimed he could
stop the war in a day
. That was never going to happen. But from 12 February onwards, when
Trump first talked directly to Putin
about Ukraine, the intention and approach have not altered. There is no reason to suppose they will do so now. Indeed, Tuesday’s impasse may spur them on again.
Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist
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