He predicted an automation crisis years ago. Now, Andrew Yang says AI may wipe out 40 million jobs over the next decade.
In a recent interview, Andrew Yang, former presidential candidate and advocate for universal basic income (UBI), reiterated his long-standing warnings about the impact of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) on the American workforce. Yang, who first raised alarm bells in 2018 about the potential for automation to “destabilize society,” now asserts that the crisis he foresaw is no longer hypothetical. He estimates that as many as 40 million jobs could be lost due to AI and automation, a prediction that aligns with recent studies indicating that a significant portion of the U.S. labor market is at risk. For instance, the MIT Iceberg Index revealed that current AI systems can already perform tasks representing 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, which translates to approximately $1.2 trillion in wages across various sectors including finance and healthcare.
Yang’s concerns are echoed by recent reports highlighting how major corporations are increasingly turning to automation, with companies like Amazon planning to automate up to 75% of their operations. This trend is not isolated; numerous firms, including Salesforce and Walmart, have cited AI as a factor in recent layoffs. Yang emphasizes that 44% of American jobs are vulnerable to automation, a figure supported by various studies, including an IMF analysis predicting that 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected by AI. As the workforce faces this unprecedented shift, Yang advocates for a universal basic income of $1,000 per month for every adult, funded by the very tech giants benefiting from AI advancements. He argues that such a financial safety net is essential to prevent millions from being left behind and potentially radicalized as they confront economic instability.
While Yang acknowledges that a cash stipend alone won’t solve all issues—highlighting the need for purpose and community—he insists that without immediate financial support, many Americans could face dire consequences. He calls for a “token tax” on AI companies, suggesting that these firms should contribute to a fund that supports displaced workers. Yang’s vision of a UBI, which he believes is modest compared to the economic value generated by AI, aims to provide a buffer against the chaotic changes in the job market. As the conversation around AI and employment continues to evolve, Yang’s warnings serve as a critical reminder of the need for proactive measures to safeguard the future of work in America.
Andrew Yang says the AI jobs crisis he warned about is now here — and tens of millions of workers are at risk.
JP Yim/Getty Images for The Asian American Foundation
Andrew Yang warned in 2018 that automation could “destabilize society” and spark riots.
He says that future is here, predicting 40 million job losses and urging a UBI funded by AI giants.
“We could be doing much more for the millions of Americans who are going to be displaced,” he said.
Andrew Yang
has warned for several years that automation would upend the American workforce.
In the run-up to his 2020 campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, he predicted that self-driving cars alone could displace a million mostly male truck drivers with limited education — a shift that could “destabilize society” and even trigger “riots in the street,” he told The New York Times in 2018.
Seven years later, Yang says the crisis he feared is no longer hypothetical.
“It’s aging very, very well, unfortunately,” he told CNN’s Michael Smerconish of his predictions in a recent interview.
AI job losses are no longer theoretical
Recent analyses indicate that AI and automation are already capable of performing a significant share of US labor tasks and are
reshaping employment
.
MIT’s Iceberg Index, released last week, found that current AI systems can already technically perform skills representing 11.7% of the US labor market — roughly $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, healthcare, and professional services.
The New York Times, citing internal Amazon strategy documents and interviews, reported in October that the company believes automation could allow it to avoid hiring more than 600,000 US workers over the next few years, and that its robotics team has an ultimate goal of automating 75% of its operations.
Salesforce, Walmart,
HP, IBM, and Fiverr
have all cited AI in recent rounds of layoffs or announced layoffs tied to AI.
“44% of American jobs are either repetitive manual or repetitive cognitive and thus could be subject to AI and automation,” Yang said in the interview with CNN. “We’re seeing that unfold right now.”
Yang’s 44% estimate is broadly in line with some major studies on automation.
An
IMF analysis from 2024
suggested that around 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected by AI, with half benefiting from the technology and the other being negatively impacted by it.
A McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report released last month found that technologies could theoretically automate more than half of US work hours.
Yang’s warning: Up to 40 million jobs could vanish
Yang pushed back against
Roman Yampolskiy
, a computer science professor at the University of Louisville and an AI safety researcher, who in September predicted 99% unemployment within five years.
“It’s going to get bad. I certainly don’t think 99% bad,” Yang said.
Using his 44% vulnerability benchmark, Yang offered a rough projection: if the US “churns through” even half of those jobs over the next decade, the country could see 30 to 40 million positions eliminated.
“That would be devastating,” he said. “That would be catastrophic for many, many communities.”
His fix: guaranteed income paid for by the companies winning the AI boom
The rapid pace of AI-driven disruption has revived Yang’s signature policy idea: a universal basic income that gives every American adult $1,000 a month, no strings attached.
He said guaranteed cash would help workers survive the shockwaves of automation and maintain basic economic stability.
To fund a nationwide program, Yang said the firms driving AI’s explosive growth should bear the cost.
He cited Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who floated to Axios in May the idea of a “token tax” that the government should levy on AI companies.
With tech giants generating “hundreds of billions” in value — powered in part by data the public never knowingly provided — Yang said an AI tax or “compute tax” could raise “very big numbers very quickly.”
Given that the US produced roughly $85,000 in GDP per person in 2024, according to the World Bank, Yang said his $12,000 annual Freedom Dividend “seems pretty modest and reasonable.”
A final warning
Yang said that a cash stipend isn’t a cure-all — people also need purpose, structure, and a sense of community.
But without financial stability, he said, millions risk being left behind and pushed toward radicalization.
“We could be doing much, much more for the millions of Americans who are going to be displaced,” Yang said.
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