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Don’t count on a reset in US-Iran relations, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye

In the wake of ongoing tensions and economic struggles, Iran’s leadership remains deeply divided over the prospect of engaging in negotiations with the United States, often referred to as the “Great Satan.” Despite facing severe economic sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy and led to widespread discontent among the populace, a faction within the Iranian government continues to resist any overtures for diplomacy with Washington. The complexities of Iran’s political landscape reveal a struggle between hardliners, who advocate for a confrontational stance, and moderates, who see potential in diplomatic engagement as a means to alleviate economic hardships.

The hardline faction, led by figures such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, argues that negotiating with the U.S. would undermine Iran’s sovereignty and embolden its adversaries. They emphasize a narrative of resistance against foreign influence, citing historical grievances and the need to maintain a strong national identity. This perspective is bolstered by the belief that past diplomatic efforts have not yielded favorable outcomes for Iran, as seen in the 2015 nuclear deal, which was ultimately abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018. In contrast, moderates within the government, including President Ebrahim Raisi, recognize the urgent need for economic relief and argue that negotiations could pave the way for sanctions relief and greater international engagement.

The internal power struggle is further complicated by the broader geopolitical context, including Iran’s relationships with regional allies and adversaries. While some leaders advocate for a more conciliatory approach, pointing to potential economic benefits and improved relations with the West, the hardliners remain steadfast in their resistance. The situation is exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the region, such as tensions with Israel and the United States’ military presence in the Gulf. As Iran grapples with these multifaceted challenges, the debate over whether to pursue a deal with the U.S. continues to shape the country’s future, leaving the Iranian populace caught in the crossfire of political ideology and economic necessity.