As the holidays approach, Thanksgiving becomes Trump’s economic test
As the holiday season approaches, many Americans are entering this time of year with a sense of unease regarding the economy, despite signs that inflation is gradually cooling. This Thanksgiving serves as a crucial moment for President Donald Trump, as it acts as a national barometer for his economic stewardship and the effectiveness of his affordability promises. According to Joanne Hsu, director and chief economist of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, consumers are exercising caution when it comes to significant purchases, influenced by high prices and borrowing costs. While many remain hesitant about spending big, they are still willing to make smaller purchases if they perceive good value. This cautious approach reflects a broader sentiment of uncertainty about the economy, with nearly 1 in 4 American households reportedly living paycheck to paycheck.
This disconnect between improving economic indicators and persistent consumer pessimism presents a significant political challenge for Trump. Recent polling data reveals that 76% of voters rate the economy negatively, a stark increase from previous months. Many voters are increasingly placing the blame for the economic downturn on Trump, with a notable shift in sentiment as more individuals feel that his policies have personally affected them adversely. The recent elections have shown that Democrats capitalized on affordability themes, particularly in states like Virginia and New Jersey, where high housing and utility costs have burdened voters. By emphasizing Trump’s early economic decisions and their impact on affordability, Democratic candidates resonated with constituents who feel financially strained.
Political analysts suggest that Trump’s early missteps, particularly his promises to lower prices followed by policies that inadvertently raised them, have contributed to his declining approval ratings regarding economic management. As Thanksgiving approaches, the real test for Trump may not be the economic data itself, but rather the conversations happening around dinner tables across the nation. If Americans still feel the pinch of high costs and do not experience the relief he has promised, it could signal a deeper disconnect between political rhetoric and the everyday realities faced by voters. In an economy where many are still feeling the squeeze, the party that effectively addresses affordability and resonates with the electorate’s financial concerns may ultimately prevail.
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Americans are heading into the holidays uneasy about the economy, even as inflation slowly cools.
As the holidays approach, Thanksgiving has become a kind of national check-in on President
Donald Trump
‘s economic stewardship and whether voters believe his affordability promises are finally paying off.
That uncertainty is reflected in how consumers are approaching the holidays, cautious about big purchases but still willing to spend selectively when they find value. That mix of caution and compromise is something Joanne Hsu, director and chief economist of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, has been tracking closely.
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“Our interviews reveal that consumers believe that now is a very unfavorable time for major purchases for multiple reasons, including high prices and high borrowing costs,” Hsu told Fox News Digital. “It is possible, however, that consumers may still be willing to spend on smaller-ticket items. That said, it is likely that consumers will be looking for value and the best way to stretch their dollars given that they generally do not feel confident about the economy at this time,” Hsu added.
That disconnect between improving data and persistent pessimism poses a political challenge for Trump, who rode promises of affordability back to the White House but is now confronting voter doubts about whether that promise is being met.
According to a
Fox News national survey
, 76% of voters rate the economy negatively, compared with 67% in July and 70% at the close of former President
Joe Biden’s
tenure. Voters largely blame Trump for the downturn, with about twice as many holding him responsible for the current economy as Biden, and three times as many saying his policies have hurt them personally.
At the same time, approval of Trump’s handling of the economy has dropped to a new low, while disapproval of his overall job performance has climbed to record highs, even among some of his core supporters.
Democrats leaned heavily on affordability themes in state and local elections this fall and it paid off.
In places like Virginia, New York and New Jersey, where voters have been squeezed by high
housing costs
and utility bills, Democratic candidates seized on Trump’s early economic moves, including his trade policy, to argue that his policies were worsening the affordability crisis rather than easing it.
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They promised to rein in energy costs, expand affordable housing and protect middle-class wages, a message that resonated with voters and analysts say, reflects a broader trend: in an
economy
where many still feel stretched thin, the party that speaks most directly to people’s pocketbooks often wins.
“I think they made a real strategic blunder back in January and February and that is that the president ran on inflation and promised to lower prices and then his very first and most prominent policy moves were to enact policies that were going to increase prices,” Scott Lincicome, the vice president of general economics at Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for trade policy studies, told Fox News Digital.
“Americans aren’t stupid, and they can put two and two together. If the guy who promised you lower prices then suddenly promises to raise prices and prices go up, well, guess what? That guy is going to get blamed,” Lincicome added.
For Trump, the real test may come not from economic data but from dinner-table conversations. If Americans don’t yet feel the relief he promised, this Thanksgiving could reveal just how far affordability remains out of reach.
