Jonah Goldberg: Has Trump already lost the Latino vote?
In the wake of the 2020 elections, the question of “Who lost the Latinos?” is becoming increasingly relevant as political analysts reflect on shifting voter demographics. Just a year ago, President Trump celebrated a significant breakthrough with Latino voters, nearly tying with Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, garnering 48% of their support compared to Harris’s 51%. This marked a dramatic 33-point swing from 2020, when Joe Biden had won 61% of the Latino vote. Trump’s appeal to this demographic was heavily rooted in economic concerns, with many Latino voters expressing nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy and responding positively to his immigration rhetoric focused on law and order.
However, recent trends indicate a stark reversal. A growing majority of Latinos (65%) now feel it is a “bad time” to be Latino in America, with over half fearing for their physical safety amid ongoing concerns about immigration policies and deportation. The recent off-year elections showed a significant swing back toward Democrats, suggesting that the initial GOP gains among Latino voters may have been short-lived. Importantly, even as economic issues remain a top concern for Latino voters, many may have refrained from voting due to fears surrounding immigration enforcement, highlighting a complex dynamic within this demographic that goes beyond traditional party lines.
The evolving narrative of Latino voting patterns raises critical questions about the future of both parties. While Trump celebrated the diversity of his coalition, it became clear that many Latino voters were motivated by specific issues rather than unwavering loyalty to the Republican agenda. As the GOP’s redistricting efforts in Texas reflect an assumption of solid support from working-class Latinos, the reality may be different, with one in five Texas Latinos who voted for Trump expressing regret. The upcoming elections will likely illuminate whether Democrats can capitalize on these shifts or if the GOP can reclaim lost ground among a vital and diverse voter base, making the inquiry into “Who lost the Latinos?” a pressing issue in American politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4gXqhXt2m8
For generations, foreign policy eggheads debated the question, “
Who lost China?”
 I’m wondering if election analysts might soon ask, “Who lost the Latinos?”
Almost exactly one year ago, President Trump won an impressive election victory. ItÂ
wasn’t the landslide his boosters claim
, but it was decisive. And Trump’s record-breaking success with Latino voters played a crucial part.
In 2020, Joe Biden won HispanicsÂ
by nearly 2-to-1 (61 percent to 36 percent)
. Four years later, Trump nearly tied Vice President Kamala Harris for the Latino vote (Harris 51 percent, Trump 48 percent). He won Hispanic men by 10 points (54-44) — aÂ
33-point
 swing in his favor from 2020, according to Edison Research. Along with an impressive showing with black men, the results led many Republicans to claim the GOP was reborn. “The Republican Party is now a multiethnic, multiracial coalition of hard-working Americans who love their country,” then-Sen. Marco Rubio proclaimed.
Here’s how Trump put it in his victory speech: “They came from … all quarters. Union, nonunion, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American, we had everybody, and it was beautiful. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense. You know, we’re the party of common sense.”
In typical fashion, Trump overstated things (Harris won 8 in 10 black votes and roughly 6 in 10 Asian votes, and union voters broke narrowly for Harris). Still, Trump had every reason to celebrate. Republicans have wanted to gain traction with Hispanic and black voters for decades, and Trump made serious inroads.
According to every poll, the overriding priority for Latino voters was the economy. COVID-19 and inflation hit working-class Latinos very hard, and nostalgia for the pre-pandemic Trump economy ran high. Trump’s immigration rhetoric focused on deporting criminal gangs and shutting down the border, which Latinos saw as common sense.
The Trump campaign’s most effective ad was a video of Harris vowing to support taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for prison inmates and illegal immigrants in federal detention. The tagline: “She’s for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
The ad was controversial for being “anti-trans,” but that wasn’t its appeal. It was the message that Harris cared too much about boutique ideological activist causes, not the “common sense” concerns of regular voters.
Fast forward one year, and Latinos are in a very different place than they hoped. For the first time, a majority of Latinos (65 percent) say it’s a “
bad time
” to be Latino in America (though only 38 percent of Republican Latinos agree). Slightly more than half say they fear for their physical safety and believe that all Latinos — regardless of citizenship status — are targets of Trump’s deportation efforts.
In the recent off-year elections, Latinos swungÂ
massively
 back towardÂ
Democrats
, more thanÂ
erasing
 GOP gains a year ago. It’s worth noting that these voters still said that their top concern was the economy, not Trump’s immigration policies. Though one does wonder how many voters, worried about being wrongly detained, didn’t risk showing up at the polls.
In the modern era, the single biggest mistake political parties make is overreading the election returns. The Trump-led GOP is particularly guilty. Every time Trump does something outrageous, self-indulgent, or just weird, his biggest fans declare, “
I voted for this.
”
That may be true for them, but it’s not true for the majority-making swing voters who took a flier on Trump based on economic concerns or frustration with Democrats. When a Latino truck driver seesÂ
video
 of a Latino teacher arrested at a daycare, it doesn’t take a genius to understand he’s probably not saying, “This is what I voted for.” Ditto the endless pardons of crooked cronies, the surprise demolition of the East Wing, or the tariff-driven chaos working its way through the economy.
Trump’s pride in the diversity of his coalition was understandable, but it didn’t account for the fact his coalition was diverse in itsÂ
reasons
 for voting for him. Not every Trump voter is a MAGA diehard. The “I voted for this” crowd isn’t a majority. The rest increasingly feel like he’s forÂ
him
 notÂ
us —
 which is why Trump’s approval rating is in “
free fall
.”
The Trump-pushed redistricting effort in Texas was based on the idea that working-class Latinos were as locked-in for Trump as the billionaire attendees of his Great Gatsby party at Mar-a-Lago. If current trends continue — still a bigÂ
ifÂ
— Democrats couldÂ
gain
 Texas seats in the midterms. One in 5 Texas Latinos who voted for Trump say theyÂ
regret
 it.
The debate over “Who lost the Latinos?” is looming on the horizon, though it won’t be hard to answer.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and the host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle isÂ
@JonahDispatch
.
