Jonah Goldberg: Has Trump already lost the Latino vote?
In the wake of the 2020 election, where President Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters, a new question is emerging among election analysts: “Who lost the Latinos?” This inquiry comes as recent data indicates a dramatic shift in Latino voter sentiment, suggesting that the GOP’s gains may be short-lived. In 2020, Trump garnered nearly 48% of the Latino vote, a stark contrast to Joe Biden’s 61%. This marked a notable 33-point swing in favor of the Republicans, leading some party leaders, like former Senator Marco Rubio, to herald a transformation of the GOP into a multiethnic coalition. Trump’s victory speech celebrated this diversity, framing it as a historic realignment around “common sense” policies, particularly focused on economic issues that resonated deeply with Latino voters during the pandemic.
However, the political landscape has shifted significantly over the past year. A recent survey reveals that 65% of Latinos now believe it is a “bad time” to be Latino in America, with concerns about safety and the impact of deportation efforts looming large. Despite the GOP’s previous success, recent off-year elections indicate a swing back toward Democrats, with economic concerns remaining paramount among Latino voters. Notably, many who initially supported Trump are reconsidering their choices, with one in five Texas Latinos expressing regret for their vote. This backlash is exacerbated by the perception that Trump’s policies and rhetoric do not align with the everyday concerns of many Latino communities, particularly amidst rising fears of being targeted by immigration enforcement.
As we approach the midterm elections, the potential for Democrats to regain ground in traditionally Republican strongholds, like Texas, is becoming increasingly plausible. The question of “Who lost the Latinos?” may soon find its answer in the evolving dynamics of voter sentiment, as many who once saw promise in Trump’s economic message now feel disillusioned. The GOP’s challenge will be to reconcile the diverse motivations of their coalition and address the concerns that are driving Latino voters back toward the Democratic fold. With shifting demographics and changing voter priorities, the 2024 elections could reveal whether the Republican Party can maintain its foothold among Latino voters or if they will see a further erosion of support.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4gXqhXt2m8
For generations, foreign policy eggheads debated the question, “
Who lost China?”
I’m wondering if election analysts might soon ask, “Who lost the Latinos?”
Almost exactly one year ago, President Trump won an impressive election victory. It
wasn’t the landslide his boosters claim
, but it was decisive. And Trump’s record-breaking success with Latino voters played a crucial part.
In 2020, Joe Biden won Hispanics
by nearly 2-to-1 (61 percent to 36 percent)
. Four years later, Trump nearly tied Vice President Kamala Harris for the Latino vote (Harris 51 percent, Trump 48 percent). He won Hispanic men by 10 points (54-44) — a
33-point
swing in his favor from 2020, according to Edison Research. Along with an impressive showing with black men, the results led many Republicans to claim the GOP was reborn. “The Republican Party is now a multiethnic, multiracial coalition of hard-working Americans who love their country,” then-Sen. Marco Rubio proclaimed.
Here’s how Trump put it in his victory speech: “They came from … all quarters. Union, nonunion, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American, we had everybody, and it was beautiful. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense. You know, we’re the party of common sense.”
In typical fashion, Trump overstated things (Harris won 8 in 10 black votes and roughly 6 in 10 Asian votes, and union voters broke narrowly for Harris). Still, Trump had every reason to celebrate. Republicans have wanted to gain traction with Hispanic and black voters for decades, and Trump made serious inroads.
According to every poll, the overriding priority for Latino voters was the economy. COVID-19 and inflation hit working-class Latinos very hard, and nostalgia for the pre-pandemic Trump economy ran high. Trump’s immigration rhetoric focused on deporting criminal gangs and shutting down the border, which Latinos saw as common sense.
The Trump campaign’s most effective ad was a video of Harris vowing to support taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for prison inmates and illegal immigrants in federal detention. The tagline: “She’s for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
The ad was controversial for being “anti-trans,” but that wasn’t its appeal. It was the message that Harris cared too much about boutique ideological activist causes, not the “common sense” concerns of regular voters.
Fast forward one year, and Latinos are in a very different place than they hoped. For the first time, a majority of Latinos (65 percent) say it’s a “
bad time
” to be Latino in America (though only 38 percent of Republican Latinos agree). Slightly more than half say they fear for their physical safety and believe that all Latinos — regardless of citizenship status — are targets of Trump’s deportation efforts.
In the recent off-year elections, Latinos swung
massively
back toward
Democrats
, more than
erasing
GOP gains a year ago. It’s worth noting that these voters still said that their top concern was the economy, not Trump’s immigration policies. Though one does wonder how many voters, worried about being wrongly detained, didn’t risk showing up at the polls.
In the modern era, the single biggest mistake political parties make is overreading the election returns. The Trump-led GOP is particularly guilty. Every time Trump does something outrageous, self-indulgent, or just weird, his biggest fans declare, “
I voted for this.
”
That may be true for them, but it’s not true for the majority-making swing voters who took a flier on Trump based on economic concerns or frustration with Democrats. When a Latino truck driver sees
video
of a Latino teacher arrested at a daycare, it doesn’t take a genius to understand he’s probably not saying, “This is what I voted for.” Ditto the endless pardons of crooked cronies, the surprise demolition of the East Wing, or the tariff-driven chaos working its way through the economy.
Trump’s pride in the diversity of his coalition was understandable, but it didn’t account for the fact his coalition was diverse in its
reasons
for voting for him. Not every Trump voter is a MAGA diehard. The “I voted for this” crowd isn’t a majority. The rest increasingly feel like he’s for
him
not
us —
which is why Trump’s approval rating is in “
free fall
.”
The Trump-pushed redistricting effort in Texas was based on the idea that working-class Latinos were as locked-in for Trump as the billionaire attendees of his Great Gatsby party at Mar-a-Lago. If current trends continue — still a big
if
— Democrats could
gain
Texas seats in the midterms. One in 5 Texas Latinos who voted for Trump say they
regret
it.
The debate over “Who lost the Latinos?” is looming on the horizon, though it won’t be hard to answer.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and the host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle is
@JonahDispatch
.
