We won’t get an October jobs report — and it throws a wrench into the Fed’s next interest rate decision
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that it will not release the October jobs report, a decision stemming from the recent government shutdown that prevented critical data collection. This shutdown, which lasted for a historic 43 days, disrupted operations across numerous federal agencies, including the BLS. The inability to gather household data from the Current Population Survey has significant implications, as this information is essential for calculating the unemployment rate and other key employment metrics. Consequently, the BLS has rescheduled the release of November’s jobs data to December 16, which will also include some data from October, marking a notable delay in the usual reporting schedule.
This delay poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on timely employment data to inform its monetary policy decisions. The Fed’s final meeting of the year is set for December 9 and 10, just days before the delayed jobs report is released. As a result, the Fed will lack the most current employment figures, which could influence its decisions regarding interest rates and economic forecasts. Following the BLS announcement, predictions for the Fed to maintain its current interest rates in December increased significantly, with market expectations shifting from approximately 50% to 66%. Additionally, the BLS indicated that it will not publish a separate Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September, further compounding the data gaps that policymakers will need to navigate.
The ramifications of the shutdown extend beyond just the jobs report; they highlight the broader impacts of government operations on economic indicators and decision-making. With the last complete jobs report released in early September, the delay in data availability raises concerns about how well-informed the Fed will be in assessing the labor market’s health as it approaches critical policy decisions. The BLS had already delayed the September jobs report to November 20, indicating the ongoing challenges posed by the shutdown. As the economy continues to grapple with various pressures, the timely release of accurate employment data remains a crucial element for stakeholders, including policymakers, businesses, and consumers.
Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release an October jobs report.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release an October jobs report due to the government shutdown.
November’s jobs data release is delayed to December 16, and will include some data from October.
That puts the report after the Fed’s final meeting of the year on December 9 and 10.
The
Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday
that it will not release an October jobs report, citing a lack of data collection during the government shutdown.
BLS said it could not collect household data from the Current Population Survey, “which is not able to be retroactively collected.” That information is central to the monthly jobs report and is used to calculate the unemployment rate.
The collection period for November 2025 data will also be extended, BLS announced, and extra processing time will be added. The Bureau will now release data on December 16, rather than the originally scheduled December 5. That report will also include data on job creation in October from the business establishment survey.
This means that the Federal Reserve will not have access to the most timely jobs data before its last meeting of the year on December 9 and 10. The Fed relies on monthly unemployment and job vacancy data to make decisions, and the last full jobs report was released in early September.
The Bureau is releasing the September jobs report on November 20, after delaying publication during the shutdown.
Following BLS’ announcement,
CME Fed Watch’s
prediction of a hold in the December meeting rose from roughly 50% to 66%.
The Bureau also said that it will not publish a separate Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September, but will include that data in the October report scheduled to be released December 9.
The government shutdown lasted for a record 43 days, impacting funding and operations across all agencies.
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