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US Politics

Why the ACA subsidy cliff is a ‘phantom tax’ — and how to avoid it

By Eric November 19, 2025

As the open enrollment period for health insurance approaches, many individuals and families who purchase coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace are facing potential changes that could significantly impact their premiums. Starting next year, several policy shifts could result in the loss of premium subsidies for many enrollees. These subsidies, which have made health insurance more affordable for millions of Americans, are tied to income levels and household size, and changes in these factors could push some individuals above the eligibility threshold, leading to what is commonly referred to as the “subsidy cliff.”

The implications of losing these premium subsidies are substantial, as they can lead to drastic increases in monthly health insurance costs. For example, a family of four earning just above the threshold may see their premiums skyrocket from a manageable $200 per month to over $800, making healthcare access much more difficult. However, there are strategies that individuals can employ to navigate this potential financial burden. One effective approach is to carefully assess and potentially adjust income levels, such as considering a change in work hours or taking advantage of tax credits that can help lower overall taxable income. Additionally, exploring different plan options within the ACA marketplace can help consumers find more affordable coverage that still meets their healthcare needs.

It’s crucial for individuals to stay informed about their eligibility for subsidies and the potential changes coming down the pipeline. Consulting with a health insurance navigator or utilizing online resources provided by the ACA can equip consumers with the necessary tools to make informed decisions. By proactively managing their health insurance options and understanding the implications of income changes, individuals can better position themselves to avoid the subsidy cliff and maintain access to affordable healthcare coverage in the coming year.

Those who buy health insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplace may lose premium subsidies next year. But there are ways to avoid the “cliff.”

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