Why the Democrats Finally Folded
The recent government shutdown, which has now become the longest in U.S. history, has concluded with a familiar outcome: a faction of Democrats opted to compromise rather than continue a standoff that was causing significant harm to federal workers and essential services. Historically, government shutdowns have not yielded the desired policy changes for the party instigating them, as seen in past confrontations between Republicans and Democratic administrations. For instance, the 2013 shutdown aimed at defunding the Affordable Care Act failed to achieve its goal, just as President Trump’s 2019 shutdown over border wall funding did not secure the desired concessions. This pattern repeated itself as key Democratic senators, sensing a lack of movement from Republicans on extending health insurance subsidies, shifted their votes to facilitate the reopening of the government.
The decision to end the shutdown has sparked frustration among many Democrats, who feel that capitulating to Republican demands undermines their recent electoral victories and the public’s support for their positions. Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia articulated the dilemma, noting that while many Democrats held out hope for a favorable outcome, the reality of Republican intransigence on health care made further delays untenable. Despite the Democrats’ polling advantage, they found themselves unable to leverage it effectively against a steadfast GOP. The compromise reached included a promise from Republican leaders to vote on the health insurance subsidies in the future, though many view this as a hollow victory. The agreement also provides funding for critical services, such as food assistance through SNAP, and protections for federal employees affected by the shutdown.
While the Democrats may have salvaged some immediate concerns by reopening the government, they have not secured any substantial policy victories, leaving many within the party disheartened. The shutdown’s fallout has affected a wide range of Americans, from furloughed federal workers to families relying on SNAP benefits, highlighting the real-world consequences of political stalemates. As the government reopens, the focus now shifts to upcoming funding deadlines, with Democrats vowing to continue their push for health insurance subsidies. The looming threat of another shutdown in January remains, and as Senator Jeanne Shaheen indicated, the option of resorting to shutdown tactics may still be on the table if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results.
T
his is
how the government shutdown was always going to end.
For the past 30 years, the party that has forced federal agencies to close their doors in a funding fight has never actually achieved the policy outcome it was demanding. Republicans did not successfully pressure then-President Barack Obama to defund his signature health-care law when they shut down the government in 2013. President Donald Trump, during his first term, failed to persuade Senate Democrats to authorize his border wall in 2019.
And over the past two weeks, a pivotal faction of
Democrats
abandoned their hope that Republicans would agree to extend insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act anytime soon. So late last night, they provided the key votes to begin the process of reopening the government after what has become the longest shutdown in United States history. (Final votes to end the impasse are expected in the coming days.)
“I came to the conclusion that they were not going to cave on that red line,” Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, one of five Democrats who flipped his vote yesterday after previously backing the shutdown, told us by phone this afternoon. He acknowledged that many of his colleagues disagreed. But when he would press them on whether they believed that Republicans might come around on health care, they could not say. “There really was no evidence to suggest that they would.”
The decision to fold by a few senators infuriated other members of the Democratic caucus; indeed, it was hard to find an elected Democrat inside or outside Washington who praised the move today. These critics could not fathom why the party would yield after
an election
in which voters appeared to vindicate their fight against Trump. Why abandon a winning hand?
But even though polling had swung in the Democrats’ favor, it was not enough to move the president or GOP leaders in Congress. They refused to negotiate on a proposed extension of insurance subsidies, which expire at the end of the year, as long as the government remained closed. For weeks, the Democrats’ best hope for achieving their shutdown goals had been to persuade Trump to strike a deal on health care. Over the weekend, however, Trump dug in further. After earlier suggesting that he might be open to an eventual agreement, the president reversed himself and called on Republicans to forgo a subsidies extension in favor of a new plan for direct payments to consumers through health-savings accounts. Any chance of quick consensus on the Democrats’ terms seemed to be dead.
“I understand that not all of my Democratic colleagues are satisfied with this agreement, but waiting another week or another month wouldn’t deliver a better outcome,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, another Democrat who switched her vote, told reporters.
Shaheen, Kaine, and their colleagues accepted terms similar to those that Republican leaders had been offering all along. Senate Majority Leader John Thune agreed to hold a vote within the next several weeks on a Democratic proposal to extend the subsidies, but that is widely expected to fall short. The deal clears the way for passage of a package of bipartisan appropriations bills providing full-year funding for the Departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs, as well as Congress. If approved by the House, those measures would ensure that food assistance continues for the next fiscal year and would limit the impact of another shutdown if the parties cannot agree on another spending bill by January 30. Democrats also secured GOP support for a provision forcing the Trump administration to reinstate federal employees laid off during the shutdown and preventing it from implementing another round of mass firings for the next three months.
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Watch: How lawmakers are responding to the shutdown
]
K
aine
disputed the idea that voters were endorsing Democrats’ shutdown strategy in Tuesday’s election. He pointed out that Abigail Spanberger, who coasted to victory in the Virginia governor’s race,
called
after her win for the government to reopen. But Kaine argued that even though Republicans did not relent on health care, their electoral defeat prompted Trump to
reengage in shutdown talks
—and resulted in more protections for federal workers. “He knows he was getting blamed,” Kaine said. “And as soon as he realized that, we found the off-ramp that does some good for some of the people he’s been kicking around, like SNAP recipients or federal workers.”
Yet Democrats won nothing on their core demand, except for the vague promise of future negotiations on health-care subsidies. Critics in the party were especially galled that the senators caved at a moment when Trump, who had lashed out after blaming the GOP’s election losses on the shutdown, appeared to be spiraling. “I think a bunch of adults looked at a toddler’s temper tantrum and came to the conclusion that you can’t negotiate with a toddler who’s going to pitch a goddamned fit in Toys ‘R’ Us,” a Democratic aide, dismayed by the decision to fold and granted anonymity to speak candidly, told us. “They were like, ‘Give him the Barbie and leave the store.’”
Inside the West Wing, Trump’s aides greeted the end of the shutdown as evidence that the White House’s take-no-prisoners approach to the crisis worked: Sure, it took longer than expected, but Democrats were always going to cave.
Beyond the bluster, there was some relief in Trump’s orbit that the Democrats had offered a reprieve from a shutdown that was dragging down Republicans’ poll numbers. It likely would have gotten worse had it continued into Thanksgiving and ruined holiday travel. Aides also worried that the issues at the heart of the shutdown—increased health-care costs—could flare up again next year. Predictably, Trump focused on claiming a win, believing that he had bested Democrats once more. He also reveled in the Democrats’ divide, even though, people close to him told us, he was miffed that Senate Republicans rebuffed his calls to abolish the filibuster.
[
Jonathan Chait: How Trump wants to help Democrats
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Ultimately, Tuesday’s elections were not the turning point in the shutdown; they served more as
a temporary interruption
in negotiations between Republicans and a group of wavering Democrats. But as bipartisan talks resumed, the impact of the shutdown
spread
from furloughed federal workers to SNAP beneficiaries, air travelers, and others. In recent days, the Trump administration ratcheted up the consequences of the shutdown by appealing to the Supreme Court to block a full payment of SNAP benefits to needy families, and by causing chaos at airports with an order to reduce flight volume because of staffing shortages. The Democrats who flipped their votes concluded that the shutdown wasn’t worth the damage it was causing.
Historically, shutdowns have ended when the pain they cause becomes too much for the party that provoked them. Democrats may have been winning the political fight this time, but they had made little headway on policy. They are now vowing to keep up their push to extend health-insurance subsidies, this time with the government open. The next funding deadline will be in late January, and with it comes the risk of another shutdown. At the end of a press conference yesterday, Shaheen was asked whether she might again vote to shut down parts of the government if Republicans haven’t relented by then. “That’s certainly an option,” she replied, “that I think everybody will consider.”
