Schoen and Mangel: Could Dems look to Shapiro for 2028?
As the race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination heats up, California Governor Gavin Newsom emerges as the clear front-runner, buoyed by a recent victory on Proposition 50 and leading in most polling metrics. Currently, he holds a 6-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a significant 26% of support compared to Harris’s 20%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator. However, a potential dark horse in this race is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who, despite lacking the national profile of Newsom, could pose a formidable challenge. Shapiro’s political journey has garnered him attention, particularly during the summer of 2024 when he was considered for a vice presidential slot by Harris. While he may not have the same level of name recognition, history shows that candidates can rise quickly, as seen with Barack Obama in the 2008 election cycle.
Shapiro’s political strengths are noteworthy, especially his track record in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state essential for any Democratic candidate aiming for the White House. He has successfully won elections for attorney general and governor, and polling indicates he could maintain this momentum, evidenced by a hypothetical matchup where he outperformed VP J.D. Vance by 10 points, including a significant lead among independent voters. Shapiro’s appeal lies in his centrist approach, which contrasts with the increasingly partisan landscape of the Democratic primary electorate. His ability to secure substantial investments and funding for various sectors in Pennsylvania, along with his bipartisan reputation, positions him as a candidate who prioritizes tangible results over partisan rhetoric. However, these same centrist values may alienate him from the far-left base of the party, which increasingly demands strong anti-Trump stances and progressive policies.
Despite his potential, Shapiro faces significant hurdles in a Democratic primary dominated by progressive voters. His centrist stance, particularly his support for Israel, could be detrimental in a political climate where far-left views are gaining traction. Incidents targeting him due to his Jewish identity and support for Israel highlight the challenges he may encounter in navigating the primary landscape. As Democrats consider their options for 2028, Shapiro’s pragmatic approach could be a double-edged sword; it may appeal to swing voters in a general election but could hinder his chances in the primary. Ultimately, if the Democratic Party aims to secure a victory in the 2028 election, they must weigh the benefits of a candidate like Shapiro, who can attract moderate voters, against the challenges posed by a progressive base that may not align with his centrist views.
By virtually every metric, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the front-runner for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination.
Fresh off a high-profile win on Proposition 50, Newsom leads almost all individual polls, giving him a 6-point lead (26% to 20%) over 2
nd
place Kamala Harris in the RealClearPolitics polling
aggregator
.
Nevertheless, there is another governor who could be a formidable challenger atop Democrats’ ticket in 2028: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
To be sure, Shapiro does not have the national profile that Newsom does. So far, the most national attention he’s received came in the summer of 2024, when Harris was considering him for her running mate.
And yet, lacking a strong national “brand” early on is not fatal in and of itself, as former President Barack Obama knows
In November 2005 – analogous to this point in the 2008 cycle –
polling
showed Hillary Clinton (41%) leading John Edwards (14%) and Al Gore (12%), with Obama not even included.
Still, while a lack of name recognition can be overcome, Shapiro faces a number of hurdles should he decide to run.
He’s doggedly centrist at a time of increasing partisanship.
In that same vein, his support for Israel – to say nothing of his Judaism – is increasingly anathema to the far-left, which makes up a large part of Democrats’ primary electorate.
However, Shapiro does have a number of strengths that others – particularly Newsom – do not, which could make him a strong candidate who Democrats should not overlook.
Foremost is his proven ability to carry Pennsylvania, the most important swing state.
Aptly named, the Keystone State – which Shapiro has won three times as attorney general then governor – holds the keys to the White House for any Democrat, given today’s electoral math.
Moreover, polling among Pennsylvania voters suggests Shapiro would likely win again.
In a hypothetical 2028 matchup, Shapiro beat VP J.D. Vance by 10-points (53% to 43%) – including a 58% to 33% lead with independents – per Quinnipiac
polling
.
President Trump won the state by less than one-half of a percentage point in 2024.
To that end, while Newsom’s advantage in national Democratic polling is clear, Democrats should be clear eyed about the fact that in order to win, they need someone who appeals to moderate swing voters, not solely coastal elites and progressives.
Put another way, as Binyamin Applebaum
posited
in the New York Times, “A cardboard cutout of a presidential candidate could win California…and another 15 deep blue states. The question Democrats need to answer…is what kind of Democrat can win Pennsylvania.”
In his 2020 run for attorney general, Shapiro won
more
votes than both Joe Biden and Donald Trump did that year.
Likewise, in 2022, running for governor, Shapiro not only held onto all of Biden’s 2020 voters, but also brought in Trump voters in key suburban areas,
per
a Pennsylvania political analyst.
Moreover, according to the aforementioned Quinnipiac poll, six-in-10 (60%) Pennsylvania voters – including 66% of Independents – approve of the job Shapiro is doing. Just 28% disapprove.
It’s easy to see why.
Since being elected governor, he’s
secured
a $20 billion investment from Amazon, delivered over $1 billion for farmers along with $500 million for business development, won funding for hiring more than 1,500 police officers, historic funding for K-12 education, and unprecedented permitting reform – all while cutting taxes.
Notably, Shapiro has done all of this and more with a divided government, an impediment Newsom has never had to navigate in the deep-blue confines of Sacramento.
For their part, Republicans understand the threat Shapiro poses.
GOP strategist David Urban
said
over the summer that, “Republicans will try to bang (Shapiro) up.” But, Urban continued, “whoever’s going to run against Josh is going to be pushing a big rock up the hill.”
Behind Shapiro’s enduring popularity is his prioritization of delivering tangible wins for constituents, rather than endlessly appealing to “vibes” or spending considerable time waging partisan warfare.
Describing his time in office, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
said
, “Mr. Shapiro, who has built a reputation of working across party lines, has remained popular while emphasizing a mantra of ‘Get (expletive) done.’” No wonder his official
motto
is “G-S-D.”
Politically, Shapiro’s pragmatic centrism is both a benefit and an obstacle.
It would certainly help in a general election.
Conversely, it would be an obstacle with a primary electorate increasingly dominated by the far-left.
Further complicating matters is that while Shapiro often sparred with Trump during his first term – as attorney general – he has taken a much softer approach as governor.
Similarly, during the height of the redistricting fight over the summer, Shapiro made no effort to redraw Pennsylvania’s maps.
Most of this was due to political realities – the state legislature is GOP-controlled – but with Democratic voters prioritizing candidates with strong anti-Trump bona fides, Shapiro’s head-down approach may hurt him in the primaries.
Finally, Shapiro’s biggest vulnerability in a Democratic primary is the elephant in the room that many, including the
New York Times
,
Van Jones
,
USA Today
,
NBC
, and
others
, attribute to the reason he was passed over for Harris’ VP slot – his Judaism and support for Israel.
This has had a real world impact on Shapiro.
When, last April, someone threw Molotov cocktails into the governor’s residence – where Shapiro and his family had just finished their Passover dinner – the attacker
stated
that he targeted Shapiro due to his support for Israel.
Ultimately, assuming Democrats’ goal is to win the 2028 election and not merely placate their progressive base, Shapiro is the sort of candidate who could pose a genuine and formidable threat to Vance or any other Republican.
That being said, he would have to make it to a general election first.
As long as the far-left remains the most potent force in Democratic primaries, his support for Israel and centrist beliefs present considerable obstacles, despite his credentials or ability to win critical swing voters.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is a vice president with Schoen Cooperman Research.
