Peng: US coal can bring end to Russia’s war in Ukraine
In a strategic move to pressure Vladimir Putin and potentially bring the ongoing war in Ukraine to a close, President Trump is focusing on Russian coal exports as a key target. While previous sanctions on Russian oil and gas have had limited success in curbing the Kremlin’s military ambitions, a concentrated effort to disrupt Russia’s coal industry could yield significant results. Currently, Russian coal exports are generating an estimated $31 billion annually for the Russian war budget, with major buyers including China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey—countries that are either allies or significant trading partners of the United States. Notably, Russian coal exports have now surpassed the value of its pipeline oil and natural gas sales, highlighting the critical role coal plays in sustaining the Russian economy during wartime.
The U.S. administration holds considerable leverage in this situation, particularly with the four largest buyers of Russian coal who are closely aligned with U.S. interests. By negotiating lower tariffs on U.S. coal in exchange for these nations reducing their imports of Russian coal, the U.S. could effectively displace Russian coal exports while simultaneously bolstering its own coal industry. This strategy not only targets a substantial source of revenue for the Kremlin but also capitalizes on the vulnerabilities of Russia’s coal sector, which is already facing significant challenges due to sanctions, rising operational costs, and declining energy prices. With over 140,000 jobs tied to the coal industry in Russia, a sustained U.S. campaign against coal exports could create serious political repercussions for Putin, potentially weakening his grip on power.
The implications of this strategy extend beyond economic considerations; it presents a unique opportunity for the U.S. to assert its influence on the global stage while promoting domestic interests. By framing this approach as pro-peace and pro-working class, Trump could rally support from various political factions, making it an appealing option in the current political climate. The idea of using tariffs as a tool for geopolitical leverage has historical precedence and could resonate well with the American public, particularly in coal-producing regions. If successful, this initiative could not only contribute to a quicker resolution to the conflict in Ukraine but also reinforce Trump’s commitment to American miners and the broader working class, aligning with his administration’s goals.
President Trump continues to zero in on Russian energy to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. The administration has targeted Russian oil and gas giants with new sanctions and has imposed tariffs on U.S. trading partners that buy Russian oil.
If Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end, he needs to target Russian coal.
So far, sanctions against Russian energy sales have not done enough to stop Putin from continuing the brutal war. However, a targeted campaign to eliminate the market for Russia’s massive coal exports could make a difference.
Russia’s coal industry is under intense pressure after losing European buyers, but it has been able to export coal to other parts of the world, mainly Asia.
Russian coal exports are contributing $31 billion annually to its war budget, primarily from sales to five countries that are either allies or trading partners of the United States — China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey. Remarkably, Russian coal exports are now worth more than its pipeline oil and natural gas exports.
While persuading China to reduce its import of Russian coal is a tall order, the four other largest buyers are either close allies or major trading partners looking to secure favorable trade deals with the United States.
The administration holds the cards. Lower U.S. tariffs could be negotiated in exchange for swapping Russian coal imports for greater U.S. coal imports. The U.S. coal industry, already a major exporter to all four countries, has the capacity to displace Russian exports.
The logic for zeroing in on coal sales is simple: Not only is it a significant source of foreign currency for the Kremlin but Russia’s coal industry is on an economic precipice. Cracks are starting to show on Russia’s wartime economy, as sanctions, rising costs and weak energy prices are having profound economic repercussions.
Russia’s coal industry employs more than 140,000 people and remains critical in some regions, as a source of jobs and funding for local budgets.
A U.S. campaign to tighten the screws on the Russian coal industry would almost certainly produce serious political problems for Putin.
The war has gone on for far too long. If using U.S. trade leverage to cripple Russian coal exports could shorten the war by even a week, it’s a tool the United States should use. For Trump, it could deliver the peace he seeks and provide a boon to an industry he supports.
The idea of using tariffs to address problems like military aggression is an old one with broad political support. It is our unique political moment, combined with the populist appeal of dividends for American miners, that could turn the concept into reality. This strategy is pro-peace, pro-competitiveness and pro-working class, which aligns perfectly with Trump’s agenda.
Syd S. Peng is the Charles E. Lawall Chair of Mining Engineering emeritus in the Department of Mining Engineering at West Virginia University/InsideSources
