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American consumers are miserable. But they keep spending

By Eric December 6, 2025

Recent trends indicate a significant disconnect between consumer sentiment and retail sales, raising questions about the underlying factors driving these changes. Consumer sentiment, which reflects how individuals feel about the economy and their personal financial situations, has shown signs of decline, influenced by rising inflation, interest rates, and economic uncertainties. Despite these negative sentiments, retail sales have continued to demonstrate resilience, with many sectors reporting robust growth. This paradox suggests that while consumers may feel apprehensive about their financial futures, they are still willing to spend, albeit selectively.

One key factor contributing to this decoupling is the shift in consumer behavior towards essential goods and experiences that enhance their quality of life. For example, even as inflation persists, consumers are prioritizing spending on travel, dining out, and home improvement projects, which have seen a surge in demand. Retailers have adapted by focusing on delivering value and enhancing customer experiences, leading to increased sales in sectors like hospitality and home goods. Additionally, the strength of the labor market, characterized by low unemployment rates and wage growth, has provided consumers with the confidence to continue spending despite their concerns about the economy.

Furthermore, this divergence may also be attributed to the influence of e-commerce and changing shopping habits. Online shopping has expanded access to a wider range of products and competitive pricing, allowing consumers to make purchases that align with their preferences, even in a challenging economic climate. As businesses invest in digital platforms and optimize their supply chains, they are better positioned to meet consumer demands, resulting in sustained retail sales growth. This evolving landscape highlights the importance for retailers to remain agile and responsive to consumer needs, as the relationship between sentiment and spending continues to shift in unpredictable ways.

Consumer sentiment and retail sales have decoupled

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