Winter storms blanket the East, while the US West is wondering: Where’s the snow?
As the 2026 ski season kicks off, the western United States is experiencing an unusually slow start, with snowpack levels significantly below normal as of December 1, 2025. While the eastern half of the country grapples with winter storms, cities like Denver have only recently recorded their first measurable snowfall, occurring on November 29—over a month later than average and marking one of the latest first-snow dates in the city’s history. Despite this delayed onset, experts like Adrienne Marshall, a hydrologist in Colorado, urge caution against drawing premature conclusions about the entire snow season. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that the upcoming months may follow a typical La Niña pattern, which could lead to wetter conditions in the northern regions and drier conditions in the south.
Forecasters are closely monitoring several factors that influence snowfall, including the potential impact of La Niña, characterized by cooler sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. While La Niña typically correlates with increased snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and decreased amounts in the Southwest, the variability of individual storms complicates predictions. For many ski areas, particularly in Colorado and Utah, forecasts suggest an equal likelihood of above or below average snow. Furthermore, climate change poses a significant threat to snow levels in the West, with historical data indicating a decline in snowfall since the 1920s. Rising temperatures have been linked to earlier snowmelt and decreased snowpack, which raises concerns about water supplies in regions that rely heavily on snowmelt for agriculture and hydropower.
The implications of a low-snow season extend beyond skiing; they also affect water management and wildfire risks. As snowpack diminishes, soils dry out sooner, leading to prolonged dry periods that elevate fire risks during the summer months. This trend has been observed in recent years, with low-snow winters often resulting in more severe fire seasons. Additionally, the ecological balance is threatened, as species like the wolverine depend on deep snow for survival. While current climate projections suggest that the most significant snow years will become less frequent under higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, there is still hope. The choices made today regarding emissions can influence future snow seasons, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures in combating climate change.
Much of the West has seen a slow start to the 2026 snow season.
Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post
Ski season is here, but while the eastern half of the U.S.
digs out from wintery storms
, the western U.S. snow season has been off to a very slow start.
The snowpack was
far below normal
across most of the West on Dec. 1, 2025. Denver didn’t see its first measurable snowfall until Nov. 29 – more than a month past normal, and one of its
latest first-snow dates on record
.
But a late start isn’t necessarily reason to worry about the snow season ahead.
Adrienne Marshall, a
hydrologist in Colorado
who studies how snowfall is changing in the West, explains what forecasters are watching and how rising temperatures are affecting the future of the West’s beloved snow.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook for January through March 2026 largely follows a typical La Niña pattern, with warmer and drier conditions to the south, and wetter and cooler conditions to the north.
NOAA
What are snow forecasters paying attention to right now?
It’s still early in the snow season, so there’s a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts. A late first snow doesn’t necessarily mean a low-snow year.
But there are some patterns that we know influence snowfall that forecasters are watching.
For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is
forecasting La Niña conditions for this winter
, possibly switching to neutral midway through. La Niña involves cooler-than-usual sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator west of South America. Cooler ocean temperatures in that region
can influence weather patterns
across the U.S., but so can several other factors.
La Niña – and its opposite, El Niño – don’t tell us what will happen for certain. Instead, they load the dice toward wetter or drier conditions, depending on where you are. La Niñas are
generally associated
with cooler, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and a little bit warmer, drier conditions in the U.S. Southwest, but not always.
When we look at the consequences for snow, La Niña does tend to mean more snow in the Pacific Northwest and less in the Southwest, but, again, there’s a lot of variability.
Scientists often gauge snow conditions by snow-water equivalent, a measure of the amount of water stored in a snowpack. Most of the Western U.S. was far below normal on Nov. 30, 2025. Parts of the Southwest were above normal, but this early in the season, normal is very low to begin with in many of those areas.
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
Snow conditions also depend heavily on individual storms, and those are more random than the seasonal pattern indicated by La Niña.
If you look at
NOAA’s seasonal outlook maps
, most of Colorado and Utah are in the gap between the cooler and wetter pattern to the north and the warmer and drier pattern to the south expected during winter 2026. So, the outlook suggests roughly equal chances of more or less snow than normal and warmer or cooler weather across many major ski areas.
How is climate change affecting snowfall in the West?
In the West, snow measurements date back a century, so we can see some trends.
Starting in the 1920s, surveyors would go out into the mountains and
measure the snowpack
in March and April every year. Those records suggest
snowfall has declined
in most of the West. We also see evidence of
more midwinter melting
.
How much snow falls is driven by both temperature and precipitation, and
temperature is warming
In the past few years, research has been able to
directly attribute observed changes
in the spring snowpack to human-caused climate change. Rising temperatures have led to decreases in snow, particularly in the Southwest. The effects of warming temperatures on overall precipitation are less clear, but the net effect in the western U.S. is a decrease in the spring snowpack.
When we look at
climate change projections for the western U.S.
in future years, we see with a high degree of confidence that we can
expect less snow in warmer climates
. In scenarios where the world produces more greenhouse gas emissions, that’s
worse for snow seasons
.
Should states be worried about water supplies?
This winter’s forecast isn’t extreme at this point, so the impact on the year’s water supplies is a pretty big question mark.
Snowpack – how much snow is on the ground in March or April –
sums up the snowfall
, minus the melt, for the year. The snowpack also affects water supplies for the rest of the year.
The
West’s water infrastructure system
was built assuming there would be a natural reservoir of snow in the mountains. California relies on the snowpack for
about a third
of its annual water supply.
However, rising temperatures are leading to
earlier snowmelt in some areas
. Evidence suggests that climate change is also expected to cause
more rain-on-snow events
at high elevations, which can cause very rapid snowmelt.
When snow melts quickly, it can cause flooding. That happened in 2023 in California, when fast melting from a heavy snow season flooded wide areas of farmland and almond orchards covering what was once Tulare Lake.
Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Both create challenges for water managers, who want to store as much snowmelt runoff as possible in reservoirs so it’s available through the summer, when states need it most for agriculture and for generating hydropower to meet high electricity demand. If the snow melts early, water resource managers face some tough decisions, because they also need to leave room in their reservoirs to manage flooding. Earlier snowmelt sometimes means they have to release stored water.
When we look at reservoir levels in the Colorado River basin, particularly the big reservoirs – Lake Powell and Lake Mead – we see a
pattern of decline over time
. They have had some very good snow and water years, and also particularly challenging ones, including a
long-running drought
. The long-term trends suggest an imbalance between supply and
growing demand
.
What else does snowfall affect, such as fire risk?
During low-snow years, the snowpack disappears sooner, and the
soils dry out earlier
in the year. That essentially leaves a longer summer dry period and
more stress on trees
.
There is evidence that we tend to have
bigger fire seasons after low-snow winters
. That can be because the forests are left with drier fuels, which sets the ecosystem up to burn. That’s obviously a major concern in the West.
Snow is also important to a lot of wildlife species that are adapted to it. One
example is the wolverine
, an endangered species that requires deep snow for denning over the winter.
What snow lessons should people take away from climate projections?
Overall, climate projections suggest our biggest snow years will be
less snowy in anticipated warmer climates
, and that
very low snow years
are expected to be more common.
But it’s important to remember that climate projections are
based on scenarios
of how much greenhouse gas might be emitted in the future – they are not predictions of the future. The world
can still reduce its emissions
to
create a less risky scenario
. In fact, while the most ambitious emissions reductions are looking less likely, the
worst emissions scenarios are also less likely
under current policies.
Understanding how choices can change climate projections can be empowering.
Projections are saying
: Here’s what we expect to happen if the world emits a lot of greenhouse gases, and here’s what we expect to happen if we emit fewer greenhouse gases based on recent trends.
The choices we make will affect our future snow seasons and the wider climate.
This article has been updated to correct the references to Denver, which saw one of its latest snowfalls on record.
Adrienne Marshall receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the United States Geological Survey, the Colorado Department of Transportation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and has received previous funding from the Carnegie Institution of Washington.
