Europe is holding the line against Trump’s and Putin’s plans for Ukraine. But it won’t be able to for ever | Martin Kettle
In a world increasingly defined by geopolitical tensions, the recent failure of peace talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, underscores a troubling trend in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This week’s discussions, which ended without a breakthrough, reflect a broader pattern of standoffs that have characterized Trump’s second term. As the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, the interests of the U.S. and Russia remain unchanged, suggesting that future negotiations may continue to falter. The lack of tangible progress in these talks raises concerns that any eventual peace settlement may lean heavily in favor of Russia, given the current imbalance of power between Europe, NATO, and the two superpowers.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically since Trump’s return to the White House in January, with his promise to resolve the conflict quickly proving overly optimistic. Despite claims that he could “stop the war in a day,” the reality is more complex, as evidenced by the ongoing hostilities and the entrenched positions of both nations. Since Trump’s initial conversation with Putin on February 12, the dynamics of their engagement have remained consistent, with little indication of a change in strategy. This week’s impasse may even serve as a catalyst for renewed efforts to broker a deal, but the underlying factors driving the conflict—namely, the lack of military and economic leverage held by Europe and NATO—remain significant obstacles to achieving a balanced resolution.
As the situation unfolds, it is clear that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is not just a regional issue but a reflection of deeper global power struggles. The failure of this week’s peace talks illustrates the challenges faced by Western nations in compelling Russia and the U.S. to take any settlement seriously. With the stakes continually rising and the potential for further escalation looming, the international community must grapple with the reality that a viable solution may still be far off, and any agreements reached may ultimately favor Russia unless a more equitable balance of power can be established.
In the 21st-century imbalance of power, Europe and Nato have neither the arms nor the wealth to impel Russia or the US to take its peace settlement seriously
The failure of
this week’s peace talks
between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff fits into a now well-established pattern of standoffs on Ukraine during Trump’s second term. But the dynamic that produced these talks may be becoming more entrenched. The US and
Russian interests
driving the process have not changed, while the conflict on the ground is intensifying. The lack of progress this week means there will be another attempt to end the war soon, and perhaps another after that, until, one day, there is some kind of US-backed deal to halt the conflict on
terms broadly favouring Russia
.
The geopolitical algorithm driving this effort is too consistent to ignore. It has been repeated ever since Trump re-entered the White House in January. On the campaign trail, Trump had claimed he could
stop the war in a day
. That was never going to happen. But from 12 February onwards, when
Trump first talked directly to Putin
about Ukraine, the intention and approach have not altered. There is no reason to suppose they will do so now. Indeed, Tuesday’s impasse may spur them on again.
Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist
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