Cattle Ranchers Are Beefing With Trump
In a recent edition of The Atlantic Daily, the complexities of the cattle auction industry and the impact of trade policies on ranchers and consumers are explored. Auctioneers, with their rapid-fire chants, play a pivotal role in driving prices for cattle, which have surged in recent years due to various factors, including tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. As beef prices reached record highs—ground beef prices alone have soared over 50% since 2020—ranchers initially found themselves in a favorable position. However, the recent announcement by Trump to roll back tariffs on foreign beef imports has created a rift between him and the ranching community, which is now grappling with the consequences of fluctuating policies that threaten their long-term investments.
The relationship between cattle prices and beef prices is intricate, influenced by a range of factors from supply chain dynamics to environmental challenges. The American cattle herd is at its smallest since 1951, partly due to droughts and livestock diseases. While demand for beef has remained stable, the reduction of tariffs on imports from countries like Brazil and Argentina is expected to further complicate the market. Ranchers who have invested heavily in raising cattle now face uncertainty, as the influx of cheaper foreign beef could undercut their prices, potentially jeopardizing their livelihoods. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has expressed deep concern over the Trump administration’s approach, stating that loyalty to a president who once championed their interests is now being tested as they navigate the unpredictable landscape of trade policies.
As the article highlights, the broader implications of these trade decisions extend beyond ranchers to American consumers, who are already feeling the pinch of rising grocery prices due to inflation. The rollback of tariffs, while aimed at making beef more accessible to consumers, raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the ranching industry. With ranchers caught between fluctuating policies and market pressures, the future of American beef production hangs in the balance, prompting a critical examination of how trade policies affect not only prices but the very fabric of American agriculture.
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Think of the cattle auctioneer’s chant as a prayer. To the untrained ear, it’s nonsense, a stream of words compressed beyond recognition. If you know what to listen for, phrases emerge from the hum and buzz:
Will you go four? Will you give five?
The job of the auctioneer is to whip bidders into a frenzy, selling cows, heifers, bulls, and steers at the highest price possible through the power of constant supplication.
Until recently, those prayers had been answered. Feeder-cattle futures traded up through the fall, driven in part by President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign-food imports. Beef prices reached new highs this year too. Ground-beef is up more than 50 percent compared with 2020 (and
some restaurants
have adjusted their menus accordingly); next year, they could be
60 percent higher
than they were this September. But growing concerns about inflation and affordability seem to have forced Trump to reconsider his trade-war strategy: Ahead of Thanksgiving, he announced that he was
rolling back tariffs on beef.
Prices at grocery stores haven’t budged, and ranchers, whose fortunes rose with those tariffs, are now suddenly at odds with a president who was once their champion.
The prices of cattle (the animals themselves) and beef (the processed meat on grocery-store shelves) have recently moved in tandem, but that’s not always the case. That may sound counterintuitive, given that the only ingredient in beef is cattle, but behind this relationship is a
quagmire
of competing interests and supply chains. It’s a long way from the pasture to the grocery store—cattle producers sell animals to feedlots and meat-packers, who then funnel beef to retailers. When the president took to
Truth Social
in October to demand that ranchers “get their prices down,” he failed to acknowledge that producers don’t control the cost of beef on their own.
High beef prices are also connected to broader issues shrinking the American herd: a major drought across western states in 2020, and the resurgence of the
New World screwworm
, a parasite that eats animals alive. The American cattle herd is now the smallest it’s been since 1951. When tariffs restricted foreign imports, meat-packers had to pay more for this decreasing supply, exerting upward pressure on beef prices. And yet, according to the trade publication
Beef Magazine
,
demand
has been remarkably stable over the past four years.
For Americans, the world’s biggest consumers of beef per capita, that consistency could have something to do with meat’s place in our culture. Beef products, and the cowboys that were once central to their production, are core to the national mythos.
Protein is king these days
; Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of Health and Human Services, adheres to a carnivore diet and plans to “Make America Healthy Again” by
updating U.S. dietary guidelines
to recommend more meat.
Trump appears to understand that a government that tells its citizens to consume more meat should also do its part to make meat more accessible. Two weeks ago, he dramatically reduced a
tariff
on Brazilian beef imports. His administration has also suggested that it will raise the
quota
for duty-free imports of Argentinian beef from 20,000 to 80,000 metric tons. Trump’s recent moves are a boon to American meat-packers who can buy more foreign beef on the cheap, but his capricious attitude toward tariffs poses a problem for ranchers, who raise cattle with the expectation of selling them years later. Each calf represents a long-term bet; why should producers invest in growing the herd when crucial policies seem to change every few months?
It’s unclear how much the influx of foreign product will affect grocery-store beef prices in the long term, but cattle prices have fallen since the White House announced these adjustments. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said in a
statement
that it “cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers.” An
industry insider
told Al Jazeera that “there was not a person in the cattle business on any level that was not insulted” by Trump’s October Truth Social
post
, in which he reminded cattle producers that his past tariff on Brazilian beef was “the only reason” they “are doing so well, for the first time in decades.”
The sky-high tariffs Trump suddenly implemented earlier this year were meant to rectify what he saw as global-trade imbalances—unfair deals that harmed Americans’ bottom line. But perhaps their greatest legacy for consumers has been higher prices on a wide variety of goods against a backdrop of rising inflation. “The average family will pay $1,800 more for groceries, clothing, and other necessities thanks to the Trump administration’s trade policies in 2025,” my colleague
Annie Lowrey
wrote last month. Now, as tariffs are being rolled back with the same apparent recklessness, ranchers are learning that loyalty to the president will get them only so far.
Related:
David Frum: Where’s the cheap beef?
(
From 2021
)
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PS
Over the past few weeks, I have become totally fixated on
CattleUSA.com
, which hosts livestreams directly from animal exchanges and stockyards. These auction houses look remarkably similar across the country: odeums bathed in cold fluorescents, with seats facing the auctioneer’s booth. Beneath the booth is the pen, where staffers guide animals through the
In
door and prod them through the
Out
. Sometimes, you can catch a goat auction too. I can’t quite put my finger on what’s so mesmerizing about it all, but I recommend checking it out, even if you’re not in the market.
— Will
Rafaela Jinich
contributed to this newsletter.
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