Schoen and Mangel: Could Dems look to Shapiro for 2028?
California Governor Gavin Newsom is emerging as the leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, buoyed by a recent victory on Proposition 50 and a consistent lead in polling against other potential candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris. According to RealClearPolitics, Newsom holds a 6-point advantage over Harris, with 26% of the Democratic vote compared to her 20%. However, a significant challenger could be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who, despite lacking the national profile of Newsom, has demonstrated considerable electoral strength in a crucial swing state. Shapiro’s political journey has garnered attention, particularly after he was considered as a potential running mate for Harris in 2024.
While Shapiro may not have the same level of recognition, his centrist approach and ability to appeal to moderate voters could be advantageous for Democrats seeking to reclaim the White House. Shapiro has successfully won elections in Pennsylvania, a state pivotal for Democratic success, having previously secured victories as attorney general and governor. His popularity is bolstered by strong approval ratings—60% of Pennsylvania voters, including 66% of independents, approve of his performance. Moreover, his pragmatic governance has resulted in significant achievements, such as a $20 billion investment from Amazon and historic funding for education and public safety, all while managing a divided government. This contrasts sharply with Newsom’s experience in California’s overwhelmingly Democratic landscape, where he has not faced the same level of bipartisan negotiation.
However, Shapiro’s centrist stance poses potential challenges within a Democratic primary increasingly influenced by far-left ideologies. His support for Israel and Jewish identity could alienate some progressive voters, particularly in light of recent anti-Semitic incidents, including an attack on his residence. While his ability to win over moderate and independent voters makes him a formidable candidate for the general election, it raises questions about his viability in the primary. As the Democratic Party grapples with its identity and electoral strategy, Shapiro’s candidacy could be a double-edged sword—offering a path to victory in the general election while navigating the complexities of a primary dominated by progressive voices. Ultimately, if Democrats prioritize winning over appeasing their base, Shapiro might be the candidate they need, but he must first overcome the hurdles of the primary landscape.
By virtually every metric, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the front-runner for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination.
Fresh off a high-profile win on Proposition 50, Newsom leads almost all individual polls, giving him a 6-point lead (26% to 20%) over 2
nd
place Kamala Harris in the RealClearPolitics polling
aggregator
.
Nevertheless, there is another governor who could be a formidable challenger atop Democrats’ ticket in 2028: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
To be sure, Shapiro does not have the national profile that Newsom does. So far, the most national attention he’s received came in the summer of 2024, when Harris was considering him for her running mate.
And yet, lacking a strong national “brand” early on is not fatal in and of itself, as former President Barack Obama knows
In November 2005 – analogous to this point in the 2008 cycle –
polling
showed Hillary Clinton (41%) leading John Edwards (14%) and Al Gore (12%), with Obama not even included.
Still, while a lack of name recognition can be overcome, Shapiro faces a number of hurdles should he decide to run.
He’s doggedly centrist at a time of increasing partisanship.
In that same vein, his support for Israel – to say nothing of his Judaism – is increasingly anathema to the far-left, which makes up a large part of Democrats’ primary electorate.
However, Shapiro does have a number of strengths that others – particularly Newsom – do not, which could make him a strong candidate who Democrats should not overlook.
Foremost is his proven ability to carry Pennsylvania, the most important swing state.
Aptly named, the Keystone State – which Shapiro has won three times as attorney general then governor – holds the keys to the White House for any Democrat, given today’s electoral math.
Moreover, polling among Pennsylvania voters suggests Shapiro would likely win again.
In a hypothetical 2028 matchup, Shapiro beat VP J.D. Vance by 10-points (53% to 43%) – including a 58% to 33% lead with independents – per Quinnipiac
polling
.
President Trump won the state by less than one-half of a percentage point in 2024.
To that end, while Newsom’s advantage in national Democratic polling is clear, Democrats should be clear eyed about the fact that in order to win, they need someone who appeals to moderate swing voters, not solely coastal elites and progressives.
Put another way, as Binyamin Applebaum
posited
in the New York Times, “A cardboard cutout of a presidential candidate could win California…and another 15 deep blue states. The question Democrats need to answer…is what kind of Democrat can win Pennsylvania.”
In his 2020 run for attorney general, Shapiro won
more
votes than both Joe Biden and Donald Trump did that year.
Likewise, in 2022, running for governor, Shapiro not only held onto all of Biden’s 2020 voters, but also brought in Trump voters in key suburban areas,
per
a Pennsylvania political analyst.
Moreover, according to the aforementioned Quinnipiac poll, six-in-10 (60%) Pennsylvania voters – including 66% of Independents – approve of the job Shapiro is doing. Just 28% disapprove.
It’s easy to see why.
Since being elected governor, he’s
secured
a $20 billion investment from Amazon, delivered over $1 billion for farmers along with $500 million for business development, won funding for hiring more than 1,500 police officers, historic funding for K-12 education, and unprecedented permitting reform – all while cutting taxes.
Notably, Shapiro has done all of this and more with a divided government, an impediment Newsom has never had to navigate in the deep-blue confines of Sacramento.
For their part, Republicans understand the threat Shapiro poses.
GOP strategist David Urban
said
over the summer that, “Republicans will try to bang (Shapiro) up.” But, Urban continued, “whoever’s going to run against Josh is going to be pushing a big rock up the hill.”
Behind Shapiro’s enduring popularity is his prioritization of delivering tangible wins for constituents, rather than endlessly appealing to “vibes” or spending considerable time waging partisan warfare.
Describing his time in office, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
said
, “Mr. Shapiro, who has built a reputation of working across party lines, has remained popular while emphasizing a mantra of ‘Get (expletive) done.’” No wonder his official
motto
is “G-S-D.”
Politically, Shapiro’s pragmatic centrism is both a benefit and an obstacle.
It would certainly help in a general election.
Conversely, it would be an obstacle with a primary electorate increasingly dominated by the far-left.
Further complicating matters is that while Shapiro often sparred with Trump during his first term – as attorney general – he has taken a much softer approach as governor.
Similarly, during the height of the redistricting fight over the summer, Shapiro made no effort to redraw Pennsylvania’s maps.
Most of this was due to political realities – the state legislature is GOP-controlled – but with Democratic voters prioritizing candidates with strong anti-Trump bona fides, Shapiro’s head-down approach may hurt him in the primaries.
Finally, Shapiro’s biggest vulnerability in a Democratic primary is the elephant in the room that many, including the
New York Times
,
Van Jones
,
USA Today
,
NBC
, and
others
, attribute to the reason he was passed over for Harris’ VP slot – his Judaism and support for Israel.
This has had a real world impact on Shapiro.
When, last April, someone threw Molotov cocktails into the governor’s residence – where Shapiro and his family had just finished their Passover dinner – the attacker
stated
that he targeted Shapiro due to his support for Israel.
Ultimately, assuming Democrats’ goal is to win the 2028 election and not merely placate their progressive base, Shapiro is the sort of candidate who could pose a genuine and formidable threat to Vance or any other Republican.
That being said, he would have to make it to a general election first.
As long as the far-left remains the most potent force in Democratic primaries, his support for Israel and centrist beliefs present considerable obstacles, despite his credentials or ability to win critical swing voters.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is a vice president with Schoen Cooperman Research.
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