Peng: US coal can bring end to Russia’s war in Ukraine
In a strategic move to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, President Trump is intensifying efforts to leverage U.S. trade policy against Russian energy exports, particularly focusing on coal. While previous sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas have proven insufficient in curtailing President Vladimir Putin’s military ambitions, experts suggest that a concentrated campaign against Russian coal could yield more significant results. Russia’s coal industry, which contributes an estimated $31 billion annually to its war budget, has been under pressure due to the loss of European buyers. However, it has found alternative markets in Asia, primarily exporting to countries such as China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey. Notably, coal exports have now surpassed Russia’s revenue from pipeline oil and natural gas, underscoring the importance of this sector to the Kremlin’s war financing.
The potential for the U.S. to influence Russian coal exports is substantial, especially considering that the four largest buyers of Russian coal—India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey—are either close allies or significant trading partners of the United States. By negotiating lower U.S. tariffs on coal imports in exchange for these countries reducing their Russian coal purchases, the U.S. could effectively disrupt a critical revenue stream for Russia. This strategy not only aligns with Trump’s pro-business agenda, supporting the American coal industry, but it also presents a unique opportunity to apply economic pressure on Putin’s regime. As Russia’s coal industry employs over 140,000 people and is vital for local economies, targeting this sector could instigate political challenges for Putin, further destabilizing his war efforts.
Utilizing trade policy as a tool for geopolitical strategy is not a new concept, but the current political landscape presents a rare moment where such measures could gain broad support. A targeted U.S. campaign against Russian coal exports could potentially shorten the war in Ukraine, aligning with Trump’s desire for peace while simultaneously bolstering American workers in the coal industry. By focusing on this lesser-discussed yet crucial aspect of Russia’s energy exports, the U.S. can take a significant step towards not only undermining Putin’s war budget but also reinforcing its own economic interests. As the situation evolves, the administration’s ability to leverage trade for diplomatic ends could redefine America’s role in the ongoing conflict and contribute to a more stable international order.
President Trump continues to zero in on Russian energy to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. The administration has targeted Russian oil and gas giants with new sanctions and has imposed tariffs on U.S. trading partners that buy Russian oil.
If Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end, he needs to target Russian coal.
So far, sanctions against Russian energy sales have not done enough to stop Putin from continuing the brutal war. However, a targeted campaign to eliminate the market for Russia’s massive coal exports could make a difference.
Russia’s coal industry is under intense pressure after losing European buyers, but it has been able to export coal to other parts of the world, mainly Asia.
Russian coal exports are contributing $31 billion annually to its war budget, primarily from sales to five countries that are either allies or trading partners of the United States — China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey. Remarkably, Russian coal exports are now worth more than its pipeline oil and natural gas exports.
While persuading China to reduce its import of Russian coal is a tall order, the four other largest buyers are either close allies or major trading partners looking to secure favorable trade deals with the United States.
The administration holds the cards. Lower U.S. tariffs could be negotiated in exchange for swapping Russian coal imports for greater U.S. coal imports. The U.S. coal industry, already a major exporter to all four countries, has the capacity to displace Russian exports.
The logic for zeroing in on coal sales is simple: Not only is it a significant source of foreign currency for the Kremlin but Russia’s coal industry is on an economic precipice. Cracks are starting to show on Russia’s wartime economy, as sanctions, rising costs and weak energy prices are having profound economic repercussions.
Russia’s coal industry employs more than 140,000 people and remains critical in some regions, as a source of jobs and funding for local budgets.
A U.S. campaign to tighten the screws on the Russian coal industry would almost certainly produce serious political problems for Putin.
The war has gone on for far too long. If using U.S. trade leverage to cripple Russian coal exports could shorten the war by even a week, it’s a tool the United States should use. For Trump, it could deliver the peace he seeks and provide a boon to an industry he supports.
The idea of using tariffs to address problems like military aggression is an old one with broad political support. It is our unique political moment, combined with the populist appeal of dividends for American miners, that could turn the concept into reality. This strategy is pro-peace, pro-competitiveness and pro-working class, which aligns perfectly with Trump’s agenda.
Syd S. Peng is the Charles E. Lawall Chair of Mining Engineering emeritus in the Department of Mining Engineering at West Virginia University/InsideSources
