Schrager: AI more likely to cause a labor shortage
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked two predominant concerns: the potential for AI to become an uncontrollable force that threatens humanity and the likelihood of widespread job displacement. However, a more nuanced and immediate worry is the looming skills gap that could result in a labor shortage, particularly in the realm of skilled workers adept at leveraging new technologies. A recent discussion with the head of an informatics program at a prominent university highlighted a critical issue: many students lack the fundamental math skills necessary for a future where AI plays a central role in various industries. This educational shortfall is concerning, especially for those who do not plan to specialize in technology but will still need to navigate an AI-driven landscape.
For students pursuing careers in AI, the challenge lies in the risk of becoming overly reliant on technology for problem-solving. While AI can enhance productivity, it is essential for workers to engage critically with the technology to generate innovative ideas and solutions. Large language models, for instance, can provide answers based on patterns in data, but they often fall short in delivering contextually rich or exceptional insights. A deep understanding of the limitations of data and the analytical skills to interpret results are crucial. Unfortunately, there is a troubling trend in the educational system, with reports indicating a decline in basic math proficiency even at elite institutions like Harvard. This decline raises alarms about the overall standards of education, particularly in critical thinking and analytical skills, which are vital during formative years.
The implications of this educational crisis extend beyond individual student outcomes; they threaten to create a significant mismatch between the skills required by employers and the capabilities of new graduates. As the economy evolves with AI integration, there is a growing fear that graduates may lack the necessary skills to contribute effectively, leading to a cycle of unemployment and unfilled positions. Compounding this issue is the broken immigration system in the U.S., which has historically attracted skilled workers from abroad. With a pressing need for individuals who possess strong quantitative and analytical skills, the lack of a coherent immigration policy could exacerbate the labor shortage. As noted by Allison Schrager, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, addressing these challenges will require a concerted effort to improve educational standards and reform immigration policies, ensuring that the workforce is equipped to thrive in an increasingly AI-centric economy. Without these changes, the U.S. risks facing a dual crisis of unemployable graduates and a significant labor shortage in critical fields.
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There are two big worries when it comes to the rapid advances in artificial intelligence. The first is that it will lead to robot overlords that will eradicate humanity. The second is that AI will eliminate many jobs. The more likely scenario is that it creates a labor shortage, or at least a dearth of skilled workers who can make the most of the new technology.
I recently spoke to the head of the informatics program at a large university and asked her about training undergraduates for this future. The biggest obstacle, she explained, is that many students do not have the necessary math skills for a world where AI will dominate our lives, especially those who don’t plan to specialize in the field.
But what about those who do plan a career in AI? Technology has always made labor more valuable because it allows workers to become more productive. The concern now is people will use AI to do their thinking for them, thereby making themselves redundant. That will probably be the case for some, but using AI in a productive manner involves employing the technology to develop novel ideas, and that requires at least some human input.
For example, large language models work by taking lots of data to not only answer a question, but finding the answer that is most common, or average. Sometimes that is adequate, but what distinguishes people in a work situation is often coming up with an exceptional answer. AI can help you get there but is rarely sufficient on its own; it also takes an ability to assess the output and push further. Or often the answer from AI is inadequate because it lacks the context that makes a certain situation unique.
Suppose you attempt to get a simple statistic from a large trove of data. It is not enough to get a statistic thrown back at you; you need to understand the limitations of the data your model is working with, where it comes from, when it is from, if it is relevant to your problem and what specification did the technology use to provide the statistic. Making sense of the results takes both decent statistical and analytic skills.
In the meantime, we are witnessing a collapse of standards and some student’s ability to do even basic math in some of America’s best universities and secondary schools. Perhaps only a fraction of students at Harvard University need remedial math. But the fact that this is even a population at such a school suggests standards across the board are weakening, not only for math but reading as well. Even exceptional students are getting less rigorous training in how to think critically during this crucial time in their lives and brain development.
I’ve heard many academics say they are still unsure how to teach students the skills they need to thrive in an AI world that eliminates many entry-level jobs. Amid a major economic transition, it is impossible to know what the future of work will look like. One likely solution may be as simple as teaching the basics well, enforcing consistent standards and giving real grades.
Doing anything else risks a vicious cycle where new graduates can’t offer much improvement on AI because they lack the skills they need to work with the technology and so aren’t worth hiring.
In such a scenario we end up in the worst of all worlds – unemployable graduates and employers unable to find enough workers who can use the new technology effectively.
When it comes to the U.S., there’s an added risk tied to immigration. Many foreign students have better quantitative skills than their American peers, but our legal and skilled migration system is broken. Even the president, long an immigration skeptic, admits we need more skilled workers who can create and use technology, and many of them will need to come from abroad. But lasting immigration reform cannot come from an executive order; it requires Congress and bipartisan consensus on immigration priorities. Unfortunately, this is not looking likely at this time.
The result is that America is potentially left dealing with a major mismatch in skills and the lack of analytical thinkers with strong math abilities who can use and adapt to however technology evolves. Neither our education nor immigration system is producing enough of these people. The outcome may be both many unemployable graduates and a massive labor shortage.
Allison Schrager is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk.”/Tribune News Service
