Peng: US coal can bring end to Russia’s war in Ukraine
In a strategic pivot to address the ongoing war in Ukraine, President Trump is focusing on Russian coal exports as a potential leverage point against Vladimir Putin. While previous sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas have not significantly curtailed the Kremlin’s military ambitions, experts suggest that a concentrated effort to disrupt Russia’s coal market could yield more substantial results. Currently, Russian coal exports generate approximately $31 billion annually, primarily from sales to key countries including China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey—many of which are either allies or important trading partners of the United States. Notably, Russian coal exports have now surpassed the revenue from its oil and natural gas sectors, underscoring the critical role coal plays in funding Russia’s military operations.
The U.S. has a unique opportunity to negotiate lower tariffs in exchange for reducing Russian coal imports, thereby increasing American coal exports to these nations. This strategy could not only undermine Russia’s economic stability but also bolster the U.S. coal industry, which is already a significant exporter to the same countries. As the Russian coal industry faces mounting challenges—including loss of European buyers and the economic strain of sanctions—targeting this sector could deliver a decisive blow to the Kremlin’s war budget. Furthermore, with over 140,000 jobs tied to the coal industry in Russia, a successful campaign against coal exports could create political turbulence for Putin, potentially hastening an end to the conflict.
Trump’s approach aligns with a broader historical precedent where tariffs have been employed to counter military aggression. By leveraging U.S. trade policy in this manner, the administration could foster a narrative of peace while simultaneously supporting American workers, particularly those in the coal industry. The potential for this strategy to resonate with both populist sentiments and competitive economic goals makes it a compelling option for Trump as he seeks to navigate the complexities of international relations and domestic industry support. Ultimately, if a shift in coal trade dynamics could shorten the war—even by a week—it represents a pragmatic tool that the United States should consider in its efforts to stabilize the region and promote peace.
President Trump continues to zero in on Russian energy to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. The administration has targeted Russian oil and gas giants with new sanctions and has imposed tariffs on U.S. trading partners that buy Russian oil.
If Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end, he needs to target Russian coal.
So far, sanctions against Russian energy sales have not done enough to stop Putin from continuing the brutal war. However, a targeted campaign to eliminate the market for Russia’s massive coal exports could make a difference.
Russia’s coal industry is under intense pressure after losing European buyers, but it has been able to export coal to other parts of the world, mainly Asia.
Russian coal exports are contributing $31 billion annually to its war budget, primarily from sales to five countries that are either allies or trading partners of the United States — China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey. Remarkably, Russian coal exports are now worth more than its pipeline oil and natural gas exports.
While persuading China to reduce its import of Russian coal is a tall order, the four other largest buyers are either close allies or major trading partners looking to secure favorable trade deals with the United States.
The administration holds the cards. Lower U.S. tariffs could be negotiated in exchange for swapping Russian coal imports for greater U.S. coal imports. The U.S. coal industry, already a major exporter to all four countries, has the capacity to displace Russian exports.
The logic for zeroing in on coal sales is simple: Not only is it a significant source of foreign currency for the Kremlin but Russia’s coal industry is on an economic precipice. Cracks are starting to show on Russia’s wartime economy, as sanctions, rising costs and weak energy prices are having profound economic repercussions.
Russia’s coal industry employs more than 140,000 people and remains critical in some regions, as a source of jobs and funding for local budgets.
A U.S. campaign to tighten the screws on the Russian coal industry would almost certainly produce serious political problems for Putin.
The war has gone on for far too long. If using U.S. trade leverage to cripple Russian coal exports could shorten the war by even a week, it’s a tool the United States should use. For Trump, it could deliver the peace he seeks and provide a boon to an industry he supports.
The idea of using tariffs to address problems like military aggression is an old one with broad political support. It is our unique political moment, combined with the populist appeal of dividends for American miners, that could turn the concept into reality. This strategy is pro-peace, pro-competitiveness and pro-working class, which aligns perfectly with Trump’s agenda.
Syd S. Peng is the Charles E. Lawall Chair of Mining Engineering emeritus in the Department of Mining Engineering at West Virginia University/InsideSources
