Schoen: Nobody won the shutdown, but GOP lost
The recent government shutdown, which lasted an unprecedented 43 days, has concluded, and the aftermath appears to heavily favor the Democratic Party, while leaving President Trump and the Republican Party grappling with the fallout. Polling data from Navigator Research indicates that throughout the shutdown, a significant portion of the American public—45%—held Republicans accountable for the impasse, compared to just 32% who blamed Democrats. This trend persisted, with Republicans consistently facing a blame margin of at least 10 points. As the shutdown drew to a close, nearly three-quarters of Americans expressed support for extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits, highlighting a stark contrast between public sentiment and the Republican stance against these subsidies. The GOP’s failure to offer a viable alternative to the ACA and their opposition to food assistance programs further alienated them from voters, reinforcing the narrative that they were out of touch with the needs of struggling Americans.
While Democrats also faced internal strife—marked by tensions between progressives and moderates—the party managed to align more closely with voter sentiments during the shutdown. The only tangible outcome for Democrats was a promise for a future vote on extending healthcare subsidies and the reinstatement of furloughed federal workers. However, the lack of significant victories has deepened the ideological rift within the party, with prominent figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticizing Senate leadership for ineffective strategies. Despite these challenges, the Republicans emerged as the clear losers, having merely postponed the healthcare subsidy debate, which could lead to another contentious standoff next year. The optics of the shutdown, particularly Trump’s refusal to support food assistance, have also tarnished their image, making it difficult for the GOP to maintain a favorable narrative heading into the midterm elections.
As the political landscape shifts, the potential impact of the shutdown on the upcoming midterms remains a critical question. Historical parallels to the 2018 elections, where Democrats capitalized on Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare without a replacement, suggest that a similar backlash could occur if the GOP fails to address healthcare affordability. With Trump’s approval ratings on economic issues faltering, and the party struggling to present a cohesive policy agenda, Democrats may find themselves in a position to leverage public discontent against the GOP. Ultimately, while the Democratic Party has its own internal challenges, the Republicans’ handling of the shutdown is likely to serve as a catalyst for voter anger, potentially shaping the electoral landscape in their favor as they head toward the midterms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g18MTRquc_A
With the longest government shutdown in U.S. history officially over, it increasingly appears that, while there were no clear winners, the big losers were President Trump and Republicans.
Indeed, despite the intra-party fighting among Democrats, Republicans failed to present any alternative to the ACA subsidies they wanted to expire, publicly opposed feeding needy Americans, and were content to let healthcare premiums skyrocket.
Even though Democrats are weakened by divisions between progressives and moderates, it is hard to see how Republicans’ actions before and during the 43-day shutdown do not work to Democrats’ advantage.
To be sure, polling data consistently reflected that Democrats were more aligned with voters’ sentiment and attitudes.
Tracking polls from Navigator Research, conducted from the shutdown’s beginning through just before it ended, showed that initially, nearly one-half (45%) of Americans blamed the GOP, versus 32% blaming Democrats.
That advantage never slipped below 10 points in any of the six polls Navigator Research conducted, eventually settling at 48% of voters holding Republicans responsible and roughly one-third (34%) blaming Democrats just days before the shutdown ended.
Similarly, nearly three-quarters (74%) of Americans supported an extension of the ACA tax credits, with 75% of that cohort — or 56% of Americans overall — saying they would blame Trump and Republicans if they are not extended, per KFF
polling
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Critically, this is not to say that Democrats can claim anything close to a clear “victory.”
In return for ending the shutdown, all Democrats secured was a promise to vote on extending the healthcare subsidies next month and the rehiring of furloughed federal workers.
The lack of any tangible win also worsened the ongoing ideological battle between progressives and moderates, which continues to be a drag on Democrats.
In the House of Representatives, Democrats including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly blasted the eight moderate Senate Democrats who broke with their party to reopen the government.
Likewise, Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez blasted the whole Democratic Senate caucus, accusing them of selecting ineffective leadership, and fellow progressive Rep. Ro Khanna called for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to “resign.”
And yet, for all of the internal strife roiling the Democratic Party — not to mention Republicans’ success in ending the shutdown without any concrete agreements — President Trump and the GOP walk away the biggest losers.
By merely extending the deadline for a permanent answer to the subsidies questions, Republicans set themselves up for another fight — and potentially another shutdown — next year.
Moreover, as the government reopens, Trump and Republicans have few good options.
Their economic messaging is falling flat — the latest Morning Consult poll showed Trump’s approval on the economy to be 10 points underwater (42% to 52%) — and letting healthcare premiums skyrocket would further degrade Trump’s “affordability” message.
The optics around the just-ended shutdown also present their own challenges.
Throughout, Trump resisted efforts to fund SNAP benefits — even appealing to the Supreme Court to block lower court rulings ordering the benefits to be paid — making it appear that he was actively fighting efforts to assist hungry Americans.
Further, while it is legitimate to oppose continuing COVID-era subsidies, it is clear that Republicans were fighting for a wildly unpopular position, as the aforementioned KFF poll demonstrates.
Even conceding that Democrats perhaps should not have held the government hostage in order to achieve a win on healthcare subsidies, the GOP’s insensitivity toward making healthcare unaffordable for millions of Americans was hardly a winning message.
With that in mind, the question that remains is what, if any, electoral impact will the shutdown have on next year’s midterms?
To the extent that there are any lasting impacts, even if Democrats do not see a direct benefit, it is likely that GOP opposition to extending healthcare subsidies and responsibility for shutting off food assistance will exacerbate trends we saw in the recent off-year elections.
In New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, respectively, made affordability the center of their campaigns, and voters responded by electing them with extremely wide margins.
Furthermore, Democrats across the country were extremely successful in turning the off-year elections into referenda on Trump.
Harnessing anger toward the shutdown, state of the economy, and other policies, Democrats sidestepped their own lack of a message and used the reaction against Trump to their advantage.
Put another way, even if the shutdown does not endear voters to the Democratic Party — whose singular message remains “we are not Donald Trump” — it may well stoke anger toward Republicans.
Having been elected largely due to concerns over the cost of living under the Biden administration, Trump’s policies have either had no positive impact, or worse, actually increased costs due to tariffs.
According to both Politico and the Washington Post, White House insiders are now keenly aware that allowing the subsidies to expire without any replacement would be a severe risk ahead of midterms.
The problem facing the GOP is that it is running out of time to create or implement any beneficial policies before the Senate holds its promised vote next month.
Interestingly, we have been here before. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, he tried to repeal Obamacare without an alternative, and Democrats rode that anger to pick up 40 seats in the House.
Ultimately, whether 2026 is a repeat of the 2018 midterms remains to be seen, not least because of Democrats’ branding issues and historic unpopularity.
That being said, how Republicans navigated the shutdown figures to be a tailwind for Democrats, particularly if the GOP remains unable to provide any viable replacement to ending healthcare coverage for millions of Americans.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
