RBC Capital says these software companies are the most likely to be acquired as AI eats the world
In the wake of significant disruptions caused by artificial intelligence (AI), the software sector is experiencing a notable uptick in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), driven largely by private equity firms seeking to capitalize on undervalued companies. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have highlighted a dramatic 78% increase in software M&A activity this year, with private equity deal volume more than doubling as investors look for bargains amidst the uncertainty surrounding generative AI’s impact on Software as a Service (SaaS) business models. Once-dominant software firms are now trading at steep discounts, prompting opportunistic buyers to consider acquisitions as a strategic move to bolster their portfolios.
RBC analysts have compiled a list of potential M&A candidates that, despite their solid customer bases and cash flow, lack compelling narratives around AI. This presents an opportunity for private equity firms, which are less constrained by the pressures of quarterly earnings, to acquire these companies, reposition them, and align them with an AI-centric future. Notable companies identified as potential targets include Asana, Box, and Confluent, among others. For instance, Asana is under pressure from rising AI-native competition, while Box’s stagnating growth could attract buyers looking to reset expectations. Similarly, Confluent’s strong position in data streaming makes it appealing for strategic buyers seeking to enhance their data infrastructure capabilities. RBC anticipates that as sentiment stabilizes and valuations remain low, a new wave of consolidation will take shape, driven by pragmatic value-seeking rather than mere speculation.
The current landscape is characterized by a mix of caution and opportunity, as regulatory scrutiny complicates potential acquisitions by major tech players. However, private equity firms are poised to act swiftly in this climate, potentially leading to a consolidation boom in the software industry. As the market grapples with the implications of AI, the pressure on software stocks may ultimately serve as a catalyst for transformative deals, allowing savvy investors to reshape the future of the sector. With a diverse array of candidates ripe for acquisition, the software M&A landscape is set for a dynamic evolution, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities presented by the ongoing AI revolution.
Michael Douglas starring as leveraged buyout dealmaker Gordon Gekko in the 1987 movie “Wall Street.”
ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Connect
AI disruption has made software companies prime targets for takeovers, according to RBC Capital.
Software M&A activity has surged as private equity firms seek bargains amid AI-driven uncertainty.
RBC analysts identify a long list of software companies that could be M&A candidates.
The threat of
AI
has sent shockwaves through the
software
sector, hammering share prices and creating, in the words of analysts at RBC Capital Markets, a rare opportunity for “opportunistic” buyers.
Once-high-flying software companies are now trading at
deep discounts
as investors worry about how generative AI could
upend SaaS business models
. That same anxiety, the analysts argue, is laying the groundwork for a new wave of dealmaking.
According to RBC, software M&A activity has surged 78% this year, with private-equity deal volume more than doubling as sponsors hunt for bargains.
“We continue to see software underperform on concerns around AI and as this underperformance drags on in spite of better-than-expected results, we may see more buyers opportunistically step in and take advantage of dislocations, particularly in private equity,” the analysts wrote in a recent note to investors.
A chart showing software M&A activity
RBC Capital Markets
While noting they have no knowledge of any such deals, the analysts listed potential targets, all of which have solid customer bases and cash flow but limited AI narratives. Private-equity buyers, less constrained by quarterly earnings pressure, could move quickly to take these companies private, reset expectations, and rebuild them for an AI-first world.
While regulatory scrutiny remains a hurdle for mega-cap tech acquirers, financial sponsors are freer to strike. RBC expects deal momentum to accelerate as sentiment stabilizes and valuations remain depressed. For investors, the AI scare that crushed software stocks might soon become the catalyst for a new consolidation boom, one driven not by hype, but by hard-nosed value hunting.
Here’s RBC’s view on which software companies are potential mergers and acquisitions targets and why:
Asana (ASAN): Under pressure amid rising AI-native competition and ongoing industry consolidation, the workplace and project management company remains a potential takeover target despite its founder-controlled voting structure.
Box (BOX): With growth stagnating and shares undervalued, the cloud content management company could attract private equity buyers seeking to reset expectations or strategic acquirers interested in its horizontal content platform.
Confluent (CFLT): Positioned attractively in the data streaming layer, Confluent could appeal to a strategic buyer seeking deeper data infrastructure capabilities.
Coursera (COUR): Despite headwinds in EdTech, Coursera’s large learner base and AI partnerships make it an appealing target for strategic buyers or as a cornerstone for a PE-led rollup.
Dropbox (DBX): Lacking the scale advantages of larger cloud storage rivals, Dropbox could become a target if new products underperform, with greater value realized as part of a bigger platform.
DocuSign (DOCU): If the e-signature company’s identity access management pivot fails to gain traction, DocuSign could attract private equity interest, though its valuation may deter many bidders.
Elastic (ESTC): Elastic’s GenAI momentum and leadership in search make it a logical target for strategic consolidation.
Five9 (FIVN): With strong contact-center-as-a-service (CCaaS) technology and margin improvement potential, Five9 could appeal to enterprise companies such as Salesforce or Cisco, or to private equity once leadership stabilizes.
Fastly (FSLY): Its solid edge-computing technology and reasonable valuation could make Fastly an attractive target to acquirers such as Google or Cisco.
Gen Digital (GEN): With stable margins, strong cash flow, and revenue synergies, the cybersecurity and fintech platform could be a compelling buyout candidate for private equity.
GitLab (GTLB): GitLab’s growing presence in developer security operations and GenAI developer tools positions it as an appealing strategic acquisition.
ZoomInfo (GTM): This company’s valuable customer relationship management data and integration potential make it a fit for large platforms such as Salesforce or a PE candidate for operational optimization.
N-Able (NABL): Its foothold in the fragmented managed service provider and small and medium-sized enterprise market makes N-Able an attractive consolidation play for private equity.
NICE (NICE): Misunderstood by markets and undervalued, NICE’s CCaaS and compliance businesses could unlock value through a takeover or breakup.
Nutanix (NTNX): As hybrid-cloud adoption grows, Nutanix’s scale and SaaS shift could make it a strategic target for major IT vendors.
PagerDuty (PD): PagerDuty fits as a logical acquisition to strengthen an integrated IT operations platform.
Qualys (QLYS): High margins and leadership in vulnerability management make Qualys an attractive consolidation target within the cloud security sector.
Rapid7 (RPD): Following restructuring and a pivot from cybersecurity toward DevSecOps, Rapid7’s improved cash profile could appeal to private equity buyers.
Teradata (TDC): Its progress in cloud analytics positions Teradata as a potential acquisition target for large vendors or PE firms.
Varonis (VRNS): Focused on data security and governance, Varonis is well placed for a strategic GenAI-driven acquisition.
Zoom (ZM): While a sale is unlikely soon, Zoom’s best-in-class video platform could entice acquirers seeking synergies in AI and collaboration.
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