Can the world quit coal?
As world leaders gather for the 30th annual United Nations climate conference in Brazil, a palpable sense of frustration looms over the slow progress in combating climate change. Despite the urgent need for action, greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures continue to rise, exacerbated by policies from nations like the United States, where the previous administration rolled back crucial environmental regulations and encouraged fossil fuel use. This situation is particularly concerning given the ongoing rise in coal consumption, notably in countries like China and India, where debates about the future of coal-dependent communities are intensifying as the world grapples with the implications of transitioning away from this dirty energy source.
Coal, recognized as the dirtiest fossil fuel, significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and poses serious health risks. However, there are signs of hope as nearly one-third of countries worldwide have committed to phasing out unabated coal power plants by 2040. Nations such as Germany, Spain, and Malaysia are joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance, reflecting a growing global consensus on the need to transition away from coal. While the deployment of renewable energy sources like solar and wind is accelerating—accounting for over 90% of new electricity capacity installed globally in 2024—challenges remain. Rapidly growing energy demands often lead to the construction of new fossil fuel plants, including coal, which complicates efforts to reduce emissions effectively.
The path to phasing out coal is fraught with complexities, particularly concerning the welfare of coal-dependent communities. Lessons from the past, such as the economic devastation experienced by British coal communities during the 1980s, highlight the necessity of ensuring a just transition. Countries can learn from successful examples where careful planning, retraining programs, and financial support for affected workers have paved the way for sustainable economic futures. At the climate conference, advocates are also proposing a fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty to legally bind nations to halt new fossil fuel projects, emphasizing the need for political and regulatory reforms to facilitate the transition to renewable energy. With affordable renewable technologies now available, the world stands at a critical juncture where it can decisively move away from coal, embracing a cleaner, healthier future.
A fisherman looks at the Suralaya coal-fired power plant in Cilegon, Indonesia, in 2023.
Ronald Siagian/AFP via Getty Images
As
world leaders
and
thousands of researchers, activists
and
lobbyists
meet in Brazil at the
30th annual United Nations climate conference
, there is plenty of frustration that the world isn’t making progress on climate change fast enough.
Globally,
greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures
continue to rise. In the U.S., the Trump administration, which didn’t send an official delegation to the climate talks, is
rolling back environmental and energy regulations
and
pressuring other countries
to boost their use of fossil fuels – the leading driver of climate change.
Coal use is also
rising, particularly in India and China
. And debates rage about justice and the
future for coal-dependent communities
as coal burning and coal mining end.
But underneath the bad news is a set of complex, contradictory and sometimes hopeful developments.
The problem with coal
Coal is the
dirtiest source of fossil fuel energy
and a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, making it bad not just for the climate but
also for human health
. That makes it a good target for cutting global emissions.
A swift drop in coal use is the main
reason U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell
in recent years as natural gas and renewable energy became cheaper.
Today, nearly a third of all countries worldwide have
pledged to phase out
their unabated coal-burning power plants in the coming years, including several countries you might not expect. Germany, Spain, Malaysia, the Czech Republic – all have substantial coal reserves and coal use today, yet they are among the
more than 60 countries
that have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance and set phase-out deadlines between 2025 and 2040.
Several governments in the
European Union
and
Latin America
are now coal phase-out leaders, and
EU greenhouse gas emissions continue to fall
.
Progress, and challenges ahead
So, where do things stand for phasing out coal burning globally? The picture is mixed. For example:
The accelerating deployment of renewable energy, energy storage, electric vehicles and energy efficiency globally offer hope that global emissions are
on their way to peaking
. More than 90% of the new electricity capacity installed worldwide in 2024
came from clean energy sources
. However,
energy demand is also growing quickly
, so new renewable power does not always replace older fossil fuel plants or prevent new ones, including coal.
China now burns more coal than the rest of the world combined, and it continues to
build new coal plants
. But China is also a
driving force
in the dramatic growth in solar and wind energy investments and electricity generation inside China and around the world. As the industry leader in renewable energy technology, it has a strong economic interest in solar and wind power’s success around the world.
While climate policies that can reduce coal use are being subject to
backlash politics and policy rollbacks
in the U.S. and several European democracies, many other governments around the world continue to enact and implement
cleaner energy and emissions reduction policies
.
Phasing out coal isn’t easy, or happening
as quickly as studies show is needed
to slow climate change.
To meet the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global warming to well under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times, research shows that the world will need to
rapidly reduce nearly all
fossil fuel burning and associated emissions – and it is
not close to being on track
.
Ensuring a just transition for coal communities
Many countries with coal mining operations worry about the transition for coal-dependent communities as mines shut down and jobs disappear.
No one wants a repeat of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s
destruction of British coal communities
in the 1980s in her effort to break the mineworkers union. Mines rapidly closed, and many coal communities and regions were left languishing in economic and social decline for decades.
Two men collect coal for cooking outside the Komati Power Station, where they used to work, in 2024, in Komati, South Africa. Both lost their jobs when Eskom closed the power plant in 2022 under international pressure to cut emissions.
Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty Images
But as more countries phase out coal, they offer examples of how to ensure coal-dependent workers, communities, regions and entire countries
benefit from a just transition
to a coal-free system.
At local and national levels,
research shows
that careful planning, grid updates and reliable financing schemes, worker retraining, small-business development and public funding of coal worker pensions and community and infrastructure investments can help set coal communities on a path for prosperity.
A fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty?
At the global climate talks, several groups, including the Powering Past Coal Alliance and an affiliated
Coal Transition Commission
, have been pushing for a
fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty
. It would legally bind governments to a ban on new fossil fuel expansion and eventually eliminate fossil fuel use.
The world has
affordable renewable energy technologies
with which to replace coal-fired electricity generation – solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels in most places. There are still challenges with the transition, but also clear ways forward. Removing
political and regulatory obstacles
to building renewable energy generation and transmission lines, boosting production of renewable energy equipment, and helping low-income countries manage the upfront cost with
more affordable financing
can help expand those technologies more widely around the world.
Shifting to renewable energy also has added benefits: It’s much
less harmful to the health
of those who live and work nearby than mining and burning coal is.
So can the world quit coal? Yes, I believe we can. Or, as Brazilians say, “Sim, nós podemos.”
Stacy D. VanDeveer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
