Cal Thomas: Please, turn off the lights
The phrase about turning off the lights when leaving a place has an interesting origin, tracing back to two real estate agents in Seattle during the economic downturn of 1971, when Boeing was laying off employees. This humorous quip took on a more serious tone in 1973 during the Arab oil boycott, as Houston newspapers used it to entice Northerners facing high unemployment and fuel shortages to relocate to Texas, promising jobs and better living conditions. Fast forward to today, and the phrase has been revived by a nonpartisan group called Unleash Prosperity, which is focusing its message on the upcoming elections in New York City and New Jersey. Their billboards starkly declare, “New Jersey isn’t moving up. Families are moving out,” and “New Yorkers aren’t moving up. They’re moving out.” This campaign highlights the exodus of residents to states like Texas and Florida, where there are no state income taxes and a perceived higher quality of life.
Stephen Moore, co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and a former senior adviser to President Trump, emphasizes the alarming trend of population loss in these states. Over the last decade, New York has seen nearly two million residents leave, resulting in a loss of approximately $111 billion in income, while New Jersey has lost about half a million residents and $31 billion in income. The implications of these statistics are profound, suggesting that unless significant changes are made to tax policies and economic strategies, states like New York and New Jersey may face a future where the last resident metaphorically “turns off the lights.” The Democratic leadership in these states, often criticized for their economic policies, may find themselves trapped in a cycle of raising taxes to compensate for a dwindling tax base, further driving residents away.
Research supports the notion that high state income taxes can lead to significant out-migration. A comprehensive study published in the American Economic Journal analyzed over a century of state income tax implementation, revealing that while states adopting income taxes saw a short-term increase in per capita revenue, they ultimately did not experience a corresponding growth in total revenue due to the outflow of wealthier residents. The findings underscore a critical oversight in Democratic tax policies: they fail to account for the mobility of high-income earners who can choose to relocate to states with more favorable tax environments. As a result, many residents in high-tax areas like New York and New Jersey are increasingly considering their options, with the metaphorical light switch in their hands, ready to leave if economic conditions do not improve.
The phrase about turning off the lights when one leaves someplace appears to have originated with two real estate agents in Seattle. It was 1971 and Boeing was laying off employees during an economic downturn. It was meant to be humorous, though the unemployed probably didn’t see it that way.
During the
Arab oil boycott in 1973
, Houston newspapers invoked the phrase as they sought to lure people from the North, which was suffering from high unemployment, fuel shortages and economic stagnation. Newspaper ads told of job openings with good salaries and benefits.
Now come the folks at
Unleash Prosperity,
a nonpartisan group focused on “educating policy makers and the public about government policies proven to maximize economic growth,” who have resurrected a form of the phrase (linked to a Billy Joel song) and applied it to next week’s elections in New York City and New Jersey. Prosperity’s billboards, which have been placed along major thoroughfares, say respectively: “New Jersey isn’t moving up. Families are moving out.” And “New Yorkers aren’t moving up. They’re moving out.” That would be to places like Texas and Florida where there are no state income taxes and life is perceived to be safer and less expensive.
Stephen Moore
, co-founder of Unleash Prosperity, and a former senior Trump economic adviser writes, “New York has lost nearly two million residents to other states over the last decade and New Jersey almost a half million. New York has lost roughly $111 billion in income and New Jersey has lost $31 billion. These states must change or the last person in the state will have to turn off the lights.”
Democrats, who have mostly run New Jersey and New York City (and state) for decades are prisoners of their bad economic philosophy and seem unwilling or unable to change. One can already hear the excuse for another tax increase should Democrats prevail in these races: “We have lost much of our tax base, so taxes must be raised.” More people will then leave and Democrats will repeat themselves, including punishing “the rich,” who are the ones paying the most taxes and hiring people who pay taxes.
A
study
published last year and billed as “the first-ever systematic analysis of 110 years of state income tax implementation throughout the United States,” highlighted the consequences when taxpayers leave high tax states for states with lower or no state income taxes. It was published in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy and titled “
The Introduction of the Income Tax, Fiscal Capacity, and Migration: Evidence from U.S. States
” and coauthored by
Ugo Antonio Troiano
, an economist and associate professor at the University of California, Riverside. The analysis looks at pre-World War II and post-World War II personal income tax impacts.
The state-level tax policies from 1900 to 2010 examined in the paper reveal that income tax adopting states increased revenue per capita by 12 percent to 17 percent, but those increases did not correspond to increases in total revenues for the government in monetary terms. This is because the introduction of state income taxes in the post-World War II era led to out-migration by wealthy Americans.
“Personal income tax means a tax upon labor income, first introduced for the purpose of redistribution of wealth,” said Troiano, whose expertise includes politics and economics. “The idea was to provide services to poorer parts of the population and reduce inequality between low-income and high-income residents.”
Unfortunately, the tax-raising Democrats failed to take human nature into account. People who have the resources also have the option of moving to more economically friendly locations. Many have, but like a Vietnam anti-war
song
said: “We’re waist deep in the big muddy and the big fool says to push on.” In this case it’s not an unpopular war, but debt and taxes, because Democrat-run cities and states can’t live within the means they are given.
Democrats are being held prisoners to their failed ideology by the far left. As a result, more people in New York City, New Jersey and other states with high taxes have their fingers on the light switch and their car engine is running.
Readers may email Cal Thomas at
tcaeditors@tribpub.com
. Look for Cal Thomas’ latest book “A Watchman in the Night: What I’ve Seen Over 50 Years Reporting on America” (HumanixBooks).
