Lucas: Though not on ballot, Trump took a beating
In a striking electoral performance, Donald Trump’s influence appeared to wane significantly in recent elections across key states, despite not being on the ballot himself. The results from New York City, New Jersey, Virginia, and California showcased a disheartening trend for Trump and the Republican Party, as candidates he endorsed faced significant defeats. Notably, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani triumphed in the New York mayoral race, while gubernatorial candidates Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia also secured victories against their Republican opponents, whom Trump had endorsed, albeit without actively campaigning for them. This raises questions about the potency of Trump’s endorsements, especially in races where he did not take a prominent role.
The elections were marked by a clear contrast in campaigning styles, particularly between Trump and former President Barack Obama. While Obama actively campaigned for Sherrill and Spanberger, Trump’s endorsements seemed to lack the same energy. This was evident as both Sherrill and Spanberger ran campaigns that effectively linked their opponents to Trump, suggesting that the former president’s shadow loomed large over the races, even if he wasn’t physically present. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50, aimed at gerrymandering to eliminate Republican congressional districts, also passed, signaling another setback for Trump’s party. The proposition was a countermeasure to a Republican-led redistricting initiative in Texas, underscoring a broader Democratic strategy to consolidate power ahead of the 2024 elections.
The implications of these results extend beyond mere numbers; they signal a potential shift in voter sentiment and the effectiveness of Trump’s political brand. With Democrats reclaiming control in Virginia and New Jersey, and even defeating incumbents in tight races, the narrative surrounding Trump’s influence is being reshaped. He himself attributed the losses to external factors, such as government shutdowns, rather than acknowledging a decline in his own political capital. As the Republican Party looks ahead to future elections, the question remains: Can Trump maintain his grip on the party and its base, or are these results indicative of a broader trend of diminishing returns for Trumpism without Trump actively leading the charge? The upcoming political landscape will be crucial in determining the future of Republican strategies and the enduring impact of Trump’s legacy.
Donald Trump may not have been on the ballot, but he got clobbered anyway.
He lost everywhere — in New York City, in New Jersey, in Virginia and in California.
Granted Trump did not personally campaign for the losing Republican gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey or Virginia, or for Andrew Cuomo, an independent, in New York City, but he endorsed them, whether by name or by party. And they all lost.
In the New York mayoral contest, which Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani won handily, Trump in his support of Andrew Cuomo said he’d rather see a “bad Democrat” (Cuomo) as mayor than a “Communist” (Mamdani).
And while he took no strong public role in California, Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 plan to gerrymander the state midterm to wipe out Republican congressional districts, its passage was also a setback for Trump and the Republicans.
The proposition was proposed by Newsom to counter a similar midterm redistricting plan in Texas which favors the Republicans. Newsom is considered by some to be a viable candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Despite his endorsement, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Mikie Sherrill beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia.
Trump endorsed both Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears (but not by name) but did not actively campaign for them.
Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama, who has been accused of having no political coattails, not only endorsed Sherrill in New Jersey and Spanberger in Virginia but actively hit the campaign trail for them.
While Obama did not officially endorse the controversial Mamdani, he did telephone him just before the election. While the conversation was not made public, in a statement obtained by the Times, Mamdani spokesperson Dora Pekec said that “Zohran Mamdani appreciated President Obama’s words of support and their conversation on the importance of bringing a new kind of politics to our city.”
It also gave the shrewd Obama the option of denying any endorsement in the event Mamdani lost.
The Spanberger victory in Virginia gives Democrats back control of the state currently run by Republican Glenn Youngkin, who was term-limited.
Sherrill, meanwhile, will succeed Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in New Jersey, who was also term-limited.
Both Spanberger and Sherrill attacked Trump throughout their campaigns as though Trump were on the ballot, as did Mamdani in New York and Newsom in California.
While both New Jersey and Virginia are Democratic majority states, Republicans hoped for upsets, especially in New Jersey.
But it was not to be.
Ciattarelli ran worse than he did four years ago when he was beaten for governor by Murphy.
Democrats in Virginia even narrowly elected Democrat Jay Jones for attorney general over Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, who Trump also endorsed.
Jones is known for his sick text messages that he wanted to shoot Todd Gilbert, then-Virginia GOP House Speaker. “Three people, two bullets,” he texted in 2022, “Gilbert, hitler, pol pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.” Virginia Democrats elected him anyway.
While Jones apologized for the texts, he could have also warned politicians not to text late at night, something Trump does regularly, which he also did following Tuesday’s election results.
The president posted: “Trump was not on the ballot and (government) shutdown were the two reasons that Republicans lost election tonight.”
Trump might have added that they lost because he was too busy running the country and the world to campaign for them.
There is no Trumpism without Trump.
Veteran political reporter Peter Lucas can be reached at: peter.lucas@bostonherald.com
